NFC Wildcard Round: Rams vs Lions, Best Bets: January 14th, 2024
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sun Jan 14, 2024, 10:05 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The NFC Wildcard round is here, and Sunday Night Football is headed to Detroit as the Lions host the Los Angeles Rams in the 1st Round of the NFL Playoffs.
Matthew Stafford is making is long awaited return to Detroit as the ex-Lions Franchise QB. He has already played them once in LA, passing for 334 yards and 3 TDs as the Rams beat the Lions 28-19.
This is his first time back at Ford Field, and he sits as a 3 point underdog on the road.
Can he spoil Detroit's spectacular season? Or will Jared Goff beat his former team and keep the Lions' train rolling?
Let's break this game down and find our best bets!
Rams vs Lions Game Information
Matchup Information – NFL
- Venue & Location: Ford Field (Detroit, MI)
- Date: Sunday, January 14th, 2024
- Kick Off: 8:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: NBC
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada. Get yourself a deposit bonus and the best lines in the market here!
Spread
- Rams +3 (-105)
- Lions -3 (-115)
Moneyline
- Rams +140
- Lions -165
Total
- Over 51.5 (-115)
- Under 51.5 (-105)
Will Stafford Spoil the Lions' Magic?
The Rams are not a team anybody wants a piece of at the moment. After starting the season 3-6, they've won 7 of their L8, including 4 straight to make the playoffs. The one loss in that stretch came against the dominant Baltimore Ravens on the road, and the Rams still kept it within a TD.
They've won blowouts and close games, so they are in prime condition to take on the postseason. They are basically healthy all around, and the Kupp, Puka, Kyren trio has been incredible.
The Lions have been a little shakier after starting off hot, however, their 6-2 Home Record speaks for itself. They score 30.5 PPG at home, which is 6 points more than on the road. Plus they only give up 21.6, down a couple from their season average.
LA has had no trouble scoring the ball, putting up over 20+ PPG in 12/17 games, including 7 straight to end the regular season.
With a total set at 51.5, Vegas clearly expects points, and so do I. However I do think the total will be plenty sweaty.
I lean with the Rams and the over, but instead, I'll turn to some player props in this game.
Free NFL Picks – Lions vs Rams Player Props
The Pick: Matthew Stafford Over 272.5 Passing Yards (-115) Get a Deposit Bonus and Bet These Lins @ Bovada
How can you not bet this number in this guy's return to Detroit?
Here's the analogy. Your high school girlfriend, the one you thought you'd be with forever, dumped you, and shipped you off to Los Angeles, where you absolutely THRIVED! You got a hell of a career, reached the pinnacle of the world, got yourself a better looking woman, and now you get to go back to your hometown and show off.
Stafford is going to show out in this game.
I think 273 Passing Yards is more than attainable, and it wouldn't surprise me if he throws for 300 again.
Stafford has cleared this line in 7/15 games this season, but in 4/7 away games, posting 300+ three times on the road. He's also cleared in 4 of his L5, posting 258 yards in the one game he missed.
Detroit's secondary is suspect as well, ranking 27th in Passing Yards and TDs allowed, and 22nd in Passing Attempts. The rushing Defense is much better, so I expect the Rams to use Stafford's arm to move the ball down the field.
With weapons like Kupp and Nacua, why wouldn't you?
Even Williams can catch passes out of the backfield and get involved in the passing game.
Stafford has cleared this line in 7/10 games with at least 20 completions, so assuming he slings the rock, he should have no problem hitting this number.
For those interested, 300+ Passing Yards is listed at (+174).
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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