#3 Texas vs Baylor, Prediction & Picks: Big 12 Rivals Square Off in Waco

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

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#3 Texas vs Baylor, Prediction & Picks: Big 12 Rivals Square Off in Waco cover


The Texas Longhorns and Baylor Bears kick off Big 12 Conference play on Saturday evening in Waco!

The 1-2 Bears have had a disappointing start to the season. In Week 1, Baylor was upset at home by Texas State, 42-31. Baylor paid the university 375 thousand dollars just for them to come beat the Bears on their own turf.

The next week it looked as if Baylor would upset #12 Utah, as they held a late lead in a low scoring affair. However a late turnover set up Utah for game winning touchdown, after tying the ball game with a few minutes left. Finally the Bears beat Long Island 30-7 last week to get into the win column.

The Longhorns have had an exciting 3-0 start to their year. They beat Rice 37-10 to open up the season, and then traveled to Tuscaloosa. QB Quinn Ewers threw for 349 yards and 3 TDs as the Longhorns upset the Crimson Tide 34-24.

Last week, Texas came alive in the 4th to beat a solid Wyoming team, 31-10.

Let’s talk about this Big 12 Showdown!

Texas vs Baylor Game Information

Matchup Information

  • Venue & Location: McLane Stadium (Waco, TX)
  • Date: Saturday, September 23rd, 2023
  • Kick Off: 7:30pm Eastern
  • Broadcast: ABC

Betting Odds

Odds Courtesy of Bovada.


  • Texas -17 (-105)
  • Baylor +17 (-115)


  • Texas -750
  • Baylor +500


  • Over 49 (-115)
  • Under 49 (-105)

Is There Any Chance the Bears Pull This Off?

Texas Baylor Prediction Picks

The Bears have struggled to move the ball in the opening weeks, and I think the struggles continue against the Longhorns.

QB Sawyer Robertson only threw for 218 yards against Utah, and was picked off twice.

This line was just Baylor +14.5 last night, and now it’s up to 17. Consider me scared.

I had faith in Baylor to cover, but don’t think they keep up with Texas. As I’ve already missed the best number there, I’ll pass on the spread in this one.

Baylor’s defense might be a problem here, as they allow 409 total yards and 225 in the air. I think Quinn Ewers might have a hay-day, and I have some props to go along with that narrative.

NCAAF Player Prop Bets

Quinn Ewers over 2.5 Passing TDs (+125) Bovada

Texas Baylor Prediction Picks

Ewers has thrown 8 touchdowns this season, clearing this line 2 of 3 games. He only had 2 against Wyoming last week, but I think he will be forced to air it out in Waco.

Last week he only threw the ball 21 times, but the previous two games he averaged 34 attempts.

He hasn’t thrown a pick in six straight games, and his decision making has been great this year.

Ewers has as 67% completion rate this year, and has shown he can throw the deep ball. He’s connected with Xavior Worthy for a 40+ yard reception in the L2 games, and a 50 yarder with Ja’Tavion Sanders against Alabama.

Look for Ewers to air it out and find his receivers in the endzone. I have a feeling he and Worthy connect on a big one this game.

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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