#15 Ole Miss vs #13 Alabama, Prediction & Top Picks: Rebels Roll Tide on the Road
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Thu Sep 21, 2023, 10:45 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The Alabama Crimson Tide are hosting SEC neighbor the Ole Miss Runnin' Rebels in a Top 25 matchup this Saturday!
Nick Saban and company are 2-1 after losing to Texas at home. Last week they seemed to struggle against South Florida as they found themselves down 3-0 after the 1st quarter. Alabama went on to win it in the last three quarters with 17 unanswered points.
The Tide had some QB issues early, but it looks like this week they will roll with Jalen Milroe as the starter.
The Runnin' Rebels of Ole Miss are 3-0 and off to a hot start. Lane Kiffin's team smacked Mercer in Week 1, handled #24 Tulane on the road, winning and covering the spread, 37-20, and then hosted Georgia Tech, in yet another 48-23 beatdown.
Jaxson Dart has thrown for 852 yards and 7 TDs with just 1 INT in his first three games. Dart is also the Rebels' leading rusher, carrying the ball 32 times for 213 yards and 2 more scores.
Let's break down this game and find our best bets!
Ole Miss vs Alabama Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, AL)
- Date: Saturday, September 23rd, 2023
- Kick Off: 3:30pm Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Betting Odds
Spread
- Ole Miss +6.5 (-110)
- Alabama -6.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Ole Miss +210
- Alabama -250
Total
- Over 55.5 (-110)
- Under 55.5 (-110)
Will Dart, Rebels Pull Off Upset?
Dart is quite the dual threat QB with an arm. Kiffin is great at scheming to put this guy in good positions for him to make plays.
This is going to be a hard fought game, and while I expect defenses to come to play, I'm only leaning towards the under and not playing it.
Yes, these conference contests mean so much more and are known for being gritty games, however it simply wouldn't surprise me if these teams both go for 30 in a shootout style.
We've seen tons of points scored on and by this Alabama team late in a game against Texas (Pain for us under bettors), so I'll simply stick with Dart and the Rebels to keep it within a touchdown.
But don't be surprised when Ole Miss wins outright, and Alabama gets beaten twice at home in three weeks.
The Pick: Ole Miss +7 (-115) BetUS
NCAA Football Player Props
Jaxson Dart over 236.5 Passing Yards (-113) Bovada
This number seems far too low for an SEC road game. Especially when we saw Quinn Ewers throw for 349 yards in a eerily similar scenario.
Dart has cleared this line all 3 games this year. Last week against GT, he had 251 passing yards, but he did so on just 10 completions. He ran the ball 14 times on his own.
This week against the Tide, Dart will have to use his arm more often, which I'm sure Kiffin is aware of.
Dating back to last season, Dart has cleared this line in six straight games, including 2 300+ passing yard contests.
He's also cleared in 7 of his L10. Against Alabama last year, he only had 212 yards, but he completed just 18/31 passes.
This Saturday, he will throw the ball plenty, find his receivers, and lead the Rebels to an outright victory.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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