NCAAF Week 4 Must Bet Player Props: Shall We Keep the Heater Going?

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

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NCAAF Week 4 Must Bet Player Props: Shall We Keep the Heater Going? cover


Welcome to the College Classroom. Here we will discuss the NCAAF Must Bet Player Prop Bets for Week 4 of the College Football action.

We’re off to quite the hot start as far as NCAAF Player Prop betting goes, so let’s break it down.

NCAAF Player Prop Betting

Here’s the record on player props after four weeks of college football.

  • 9-2 +7.56u

Now, I know 81.8% isn’t sustainable, but we’re going to keep it going for as long as possible.

I’ve got four props which you may have already read about here, and I’ll break them down a little more in depth. Plus, I’ll spell out exactly how I’ll be betting on these find gentlemen to get it done this weekend.

So sit down, pull out your notebooks, because this is the College Classroom.

We are now in session.

NCAAF Week 4 Must Bet Player Props

Shedeur Sanders over 327.5 (-114) Bovada

NCAAF Must Bet Player Props

Now, if you’ve been peeping the scribbles as they were dropped this week, you might have snagged this prop at 307.5 yards, as it was listed there for a short time.

Nevertheless, Sanders is soaring over this number, and he’s probably on his way to another 350, maybe 400 passing yard game.

Travis Hunter is out for the Buffaloes, and he is a huge loss on both sides of the ball. Sanders has plenty of other talented playmakers to get the ball to, however, they may be playing catch up most of this game.

As three touchdown underdogs missing their Top DB/WR, I see Colorado struggling to cover and being behind most of the game.

Therefore, Sanders is going to air it out and soar past a number that is way too low for him. This Oregon front 7 will be a true test for the Buffs O-Line, and they may learn early that running the ball isn’t an option.

Like I said, I payed -130 juice for 307.5 passing yards, but for a reasonable price, I still think Sanders soars over 328 yards.

I am playing this to win 1U.

Jaxson Dart over 236.5 Passing Yards (-113) Bovada

NCAAF Must Bet Player Props

Dart has cleared this line in all 3 games this season, and now he’s on the road against Alabama. The last QB to go on the road against Bama as a 7 point underdog? Quinn Ewers and his Texas Longhorns beat the Tide outright, as he threw for 349 and 3 TDs.

Dart should soar over this number.

He’s a dual threat, but last week he had 251 yards on just 10 completions. He will throw the ball much more against Alabama, where he did so 32 times for 18 completions and 212 yards last year.

Dart is another year matured, and Alabama clearly has some issues to address after barely beating South Florida 17-3 on the road.

Even though Dart will run, I think he is forced to use his arm, and 250+ Passing Yards seems more than attainable in this SEC Showdown.

I’ll be playing this to win 1U as well.

Must Bet 2U NCAAF Player Props

Alright, alright, now for the fun stuff. With the success I’ve been having on the CFB prop board, I decided to really pick my spots, and start upgrading some of these to 2U plays.

Never go too crazy, but here are my favorite props for this weekend.

Malik Nabers over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Bovada

NCAAF Must Bet Player Props

This number has creeped up to 85.5, but I would still hammer it there.

We hit Nabers for 1U last week, this week we’re going to get him for 2.

Nabers has been the clear WR1 for the Tigers, and Jayden Daniels’ favorite target. They’ve connected for 24 receptions, nearly 400 yards and 3 TDs in just three games.

Nabers has cleared this line the past two games this season, and in 5 of his L7 dating back to last year.

At home, against an Arkansas team that has been less than impressive this year, I expect Nabers and Daniels to connect early and often to get him over this yardage.

Yes, the Tigers should blowout the Razorbacks, and I think they do just that. But I think Brian Kelly throws the ball enough, keeps his foot on the gas like we saw last week in Starksville, and puts the nail in the coffin of this Arkansas team.

I think Nabers has 100+ yards easily, so I will be playing his original line to win 2U.

Bovada is still offering 85.5, while the rest of the market has moved this to 90.5.

Always line shop.

Sam Hartman Over 241.5 Passing Yards (-115) Bovada

NCAAF Must Bet Player Props

Hartman has been letting it fly for the Irish, but Audric Estimé has done plenty of work on the ground as well.

But this weekend, they host the Ohio State Buckeyes, and that front 7 is tenacious. They could very well conquer Notre Dame in the trenches and control the line of scrimmage.

In my opinion, this will force the Irish to get the ball out of Hartman’s hands quickly.

Now, you can find this prop juiced at -140 on a popular sportsbook, or, you could sign up on Bovada and bet 250.5 at a normal price.

You’d be asking for 9 more yards, but I don’t think it makes much of a difference.

For reference, Hartman has cleared 251 passing yards in 22/28 career games in college. Plus, he’s done so all three games this year.

He’s soared over 250 in his L10 games, and in a tough game against the Buckeyes, I think he will have to air it out to give the Irish a chance.

At 241.5, I played this to win 2U, and I would still do the same at 250.5. Hartman touches 300+ on Gameday in South Bend.

This is my favorite prop of the weekend.

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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