California Golden Bears Win Total Future: JKS Takes on Year Two
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Jul 30, 2026, 4:50 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The ACC is probably the weakest conference amongst the Power Four leagues. Sure, Miami would be favored over Texas Tech on a neutral site, but top to bottom I'd trust the Big 12. But that's not the point. The point is, with the ACC being meh at best, there could be some sneaky teams down on the betting board that could make some noise. One of those teams could potentially be the California Golden Bears, whose win total is set at just 6.5, with plus money towards the over. Can they find seven wins before bowl season?
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California Golden Bears Football Team Preview & Schedule
Mason Mini returns at TE as one of Sagapolutele's favorite targets
Golden Bears Offense
If you didn't notice Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele last CFB season, you might've been sleeping under a rock. As a true freshman, the native Hawaiian threw for 3,454 passing yards and 18 touchdowns with only nine picks. This season, the unit returns six starters, and snags a couple more from the portal. Chase Hendricks was a 1,000 yard receiver for Ohio last year, and Ian Strong had 52 receptions and 762 yards for Rutgers. Both will be great targets for JKS, along with Oregon transfer Cooper Perry.
Adam Mohammed ran for 4.9 yards per carry at Washington last year, so he should take some pressure off of the sophomore, and Mason Mini was the third leading pass catcher last year for the Golden Bears at TE. Sagapolutele completed 108 of his 316 passes to Jacob De Jesus last year. This season, he has much better options, and I think he spreads it around more, making it tougher on defenses to catch on.
Golden Bears Defense
Full disclosure, the defense might be a lot more questionable, but I sincerely have faith in the offense to carry the team. New HC Tosh Lupoi played DL at Cal from 2000-2005, and has plenty of NFL experience coaching the trenches. Having JKS to lead the offense means Lupoi can focus on helping Michael Hutchings scheme as a first time DC.
But the schedule helps both sides of the ball.
Golden Bears 2026 Schedule
- 9/5: vs. UCLA
- 9/12: @ Syracuse
- 9/19: vs. Wagner
- 9/25: vs. Clemson (Friday Night)
- 10/3: @ UNLV
- 10/10: vs. Virginia Tech
- 10/17: vs. Wake Forest
- 10/24: @ SMU
- 10/31: @ NC State
- 11/14: @ Virginia (Both Teams off Bye)
- 11/21: vs. Stanford
- 11/28: vs. Pittsburgh
California Golden Bears Win Total Picks and Predictions
JKS is back to lead the Bears in his sophomore season. Can he lead them back to a bowl game?
California Golden Bears Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-4)
Best Bet: California Golden Bears Over 6.5 Wins (+118) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Guess who you don't see on this schedule? Miami and Louisville. Sure, you have to face SMU, but you also get Clemson at home in a look ahead spot, let's talk about it.
For starters, I see them winning all three non-conference games. UCLA isn't going to be that good, Nico is washed, and the Bruins have one of the worst secondaries in the Big Ten. Our lefty QB should tear them apart. Wagner is easy, and I have faith in the Bears going into Sin City and getting a win over Dan Mullen's UNLV. The Rebels signed Jackson Arnold this offseason, and are picked to be one of the best teams in the Mountain West, but Cal will be coming off an extra day of rest, helping them out. Regardless, we can go 2-1 in non-conference as long as they get five ACC wins.
Home Field Advantage?
Personally, I think Cal wins every game at home this year. Clemson has to come across the country on a short week, and they will be looking ahead to hosting Miami the following week. The Tigers might be favored in Berkeley, but I'll be on the Bears with the points, and outright with this win total future. Stanford, Wake Forest, and Syracuse are going to be three of the worst teams in the ACC, should be three wins.
I also like Cal to beat Pittsburgh, as the Panthers have to come all the way out West, possibly with nothing to play for. The Golden Bears have seven home games, plus they go to Syracuse. Handle business there and we've already cashed our total. However, Cal could upset SMU in a shootout in Dallas (I'll be on the over), and I think there is a chance they could split when going to NC State and Virginia.
Ultimately, I think 7-5 is the floor for this Bears team as I think they are very underrated. However, 9-3 could also be in play. I'm not the only one who thinks so, check out PJ Glasser's thoughts on the Bears and some other ACC teams here.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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