#4 Maryland vs #1 Florida West Region Semifinal Prediction & Best Bets
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Thu Mar 27, 2025, 4:28 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Through the first two rounds, the men's March Madness bracket largely lacked late drama. The lone team to advance on a buzzer-beater was Maryland, who will meet top-seed Florida in a West Regional semifinal today at the Chase Center in San Francisco (7:39 pm ET, TBS/TruTV).
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With seconds remaining in their round of 32 matchup against #12 seed Colorado State, the fourth-seeded Terrapins (27-8) were on their way out of the tournament after Jalen Lake put the Rams ahead by one with a three. But freshman Derik Queen sent his home state school to the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2016 with a buzzer-beating basket.
That sets up a showdown with the Gators (32-4), who took UConn's best shot and rallied for a 77-75 win behind Walter Clayton Jr.'s five threes and 23 points.
Through the first 52 of 67 tournament games, only ten games were decided by five or fewer points, and the two second-round games featuring Maryland and Florida were two of the six decided by one possession.
Are we in for a close contest at the Chase Center? Or will the Gators torch the Terps much like they have many other opponents on the way to the program's first Sweet Sixteen trip since 2017?
Maryland vs Florida Betting Trends
- Florida is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS this season when favored by single digits. The lone SU loss to date is an 88-83 loss at Georgia on February 25, and the only other missed cover came in the last round against UConn.
- Maryland is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season.
- In Florida games this season with a total of 150+, there's an even split of overs and unders at 14 apiece.
- However, the over is 6-0 in the last six such games, and the over has hit in each of Florida's last nine games overall.
- In Maryland games this season with a total of 150+, the under is 7-4.
- The under is 6-1-1 in Maryland's last eight games.
Maryland vs Florida Prediction & Best Bets
Maryland's tournament run is coming amid speculation heavily linking coach Kevin Willard to the vacancy at Villanova and Willard's open admission of the school's budgetary decisions potentially impacting in his future.
Will this be Willard's last game before the former Seton Hall head man heads back to the Big East?
If it is, he will exit after what should be a high-scoring game. Entering today, Florida (85.4 points per game) ranks third in Division I in scoring, while Maryland (81.4 PPG) ranks 23rd.
This season, the Gators have scored 80+ points in 29 of 36 games and 90+ points 11 times. And only once have they failed to score 80+ points in consecutive games.
Maryland, meanwhile, has failed to score 75+ points in consecutive games only twice this season, and they have hit the 80-point mark 17 times in 35 games.
More important than the surface numbers, both teams play at a quicker tempo. Maryland (16.2 seconds) ranks 34th in Division I in average offensive possession length, while Florida (16.2 seconds) ranks 42nd.
Additionally, both teams shoot a solid percentage while taking a lot of shots. Florida is shooting 47.3% on 63.5 shots per game (15th nationally), while Maryland is shooting 47.1% on 61.7 shots per game (43rd nationally).
Neither team turns the ball over a lot, either. Florida averages 10.7 turnovers per game and Maryland 10.1.
Early nerves could very well affect scoring, but the styles on both sides make the over the right choice.
But can Maryland keep it close? If they are on target from outside—they shoot 37.5% from there—they can keep up. But Florida's talent and senior trio of Clayton, Alijah Martin, and Will Richard should see them through, and at this spread, the Gators should cover.
More March Madness Information
All of our non-game content for this year's NCAA Division I men's and women's basketball tournaments can be found in one place. Bookmark our March Madness main page to keep up with our picks, predictions, and tips on how to bet on the action at the best online sportsbooks.
If you are looking for more March Madness game coverage, we have plenty of that as well, in addition of this look at Maryland vs Florida.
- BYU vs Alabama Prediction & Best Bets
- Arizona vs Duke Prediction & Best Bets
- Arkansas vs Texas Tech Odds & Best Bets
- Ole Miss vs Michigan State Prediction & Best Bets
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