#6 BYU vs #2 Alabama East Region Semifinal Prediction & Best Bets
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Wed Mar 26, 2025, 5:17 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Two of the top offensive teams in college basketball will tip off the Sweet 16 tomorrow night at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey, as #6 BYU faces #2 Alabama in the first semifinal in the East Regional (7:09 pm ET, CBS).
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Both the Cougars (26-9) and Crimson Tide (27-8) have a rare achievement at stake in this matchup.
The Tide, who went to the Final Four for the first time in program history last year, have reached the Elite Eight just twice, in 2004 and 2024. That initial Elite Eight appearance featured their lone Sweet 16 trip in a three-decade span, but this is now their fourth trip in the last five seasons, as Nate Oats has transformed the Tide into a national power.
The Cougars, meanwhile, have been to the Elite Eight just three times, most recently in 1981. This is BYU's 21st tournament appearance since the Big Dance moved to a 64-team first round in 1985, but their only other Sweet 16 trip came in 2011, when the Fighting Fredettes, sans honor code violator Brandon Davies, lost to Florida.
This time, BYU has no such major concerns, which is big as they will need all hands on deck to tango with the Tide, who lead the nation in scoring.
BYU vs Alabama Betting Trends
- Alabama is 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS as a single-digit favorite this season, including 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS when favored by five or fewer points.
- BYU is 5-3 SU and ATS as an underdog this season.
- The over is 8-4 in Alabama's last 12 games.
- In Alabama games this season in which the total has been 170+, the over is 7-4.
- The over is 12-3-1 in BYU's last 16 games, including 5-1 in their last six games.
- In BYU games this season in which the total has been 150+, the over is 9-4-1.
- When Alabama shoots at least 35% from three this season, they are 15-3 SU and ATS.
BYU vs Alabama Prediction & Best Bets
Of the 16 teams still left in the men's March Madness bracket, none love threes as much as BYU (28.7 attempts per game) and Alabama (29.2 APG).
Aptitude from beyond the arc helped both teams in the second round. In a 91-89 win over Wisconsin, BYU was 12 of 26 (46.2%). Their best outside threats, Richie Saunders (3 of 4) and Trevin Knell (4 of 6), both came up big against the Badgers.
Alabama attempted a season-low number of threes against Saint Mary's, but they made 41.2% (7 of 17) in an 80-66 win. That was well below their season average of 91.1 PPG, but the Gaels had not allowed 80 points since March 8, 2022.
That the Tide swept away Saint Mary's with Mark Sears misfiring (5 of 15 FG, 0 of 4 3PT) might be ominous for the Cougars.
In his last six games, Sears is only 5 of 35 from three. But only once in the last two seasons has Sears not made at least three three-pointers a game after missing every outside attempt.
When Sears has hit three or more threes this season (15 times), he has averaged 23.5 points per game and Alabama has averaged 93.3 PPG.
Also, while Bama is one of the nation's best teams in defending the three (30.5%), BYU (35.0%) ranks 66th out of 79 ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, and SEC teams.
When checking out college basketball odds for this matchup, the over certainly sticks out given how both teams can score. And it is the pick, even with a total well into the 170s.
So is one side of the spread. BYU (81.1 PPG, 48.3% FG, 37.3% 3PT) certainly can shoot well enough to keep up with Alabama, but the Tide will ultimately be too powerful.
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If you are looking for more March Madness game coverage, we have plenty of that as well, in addition of this look at BYU vs Alabama.
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