Betting News Bracketology: Wild Week Shakes Up Top Line
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Feb 26, 2026, 5:12 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
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Selection Sunday is less than three weeks away, and on March 15 we will have the field of 68 finalized. This will give us free rein to fill out as many sheets of paper as possible with the hopes of beating the 1 in 9.2 quintillion odds of submitting a perfect bracket. We had a wild week with plenty of upsets that shook up the top four seeds, so let's see where are projections are at with some more Betting News Bracketology.
Betting News Bracketology
Duke is the new No. 1 overall seed thanks to knocking off Michigan last weekend
Listed below are my current top four seeds, which I plan on arguing with plenty of conviction below.
1 Seeds: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, UConn
2 Seeds: Iowa State, Florida, Houston, Illinois
3 Seeds: Kansas, Gonzaga, Purdue, Virginia
4 Seeds: Michigan State, Nebraska, Alabama, Texas Tech
Next Four: North Carolina, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, St. John's
Time to argue.
Top Seeds
After beating the Michigan Wolverines, it's clear that Duke should be the No. 1 overall seed in this tournament (assuming nothing major happens). They are 17-2 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, with zero losses outside of Quad 1. Right behind them is the Arizona Wildcats who are also 17-2 in Quad 1 and 2 games, with both losses falling in the Quad 1 area as well. The Blue Devils get the slight nod by ranking one spot ahead of the Wildcats in NET SOS (Strength of Schedule) as the teams sit at No. 16 and No. 17 on that list.
Michigan is still a very dominant team with a top 10 NET SOS and Non-Conference SOS as well. They are 20-2 in Quad 1 and 2 games, but do have a Quad 2 loss on their resume, losing at home to the Wisconsin Badgers. Lastly, UConn fills our top seeds, but there is an argument to be made for several on the two seed line. The Huskies sneak into the top 30 in terms of SOS, but their Quad 3 loss to Creighton at home could bring them down a peg.
Florida could be in consideration for a one seed on Selection Sunday if they win the SEC Tournament
Two Seeds
Iowa State has only lost Quad 1 games, but they've only played 10 of them, compared to others who have seen 12 or more opponents from that category. However, the Cyclones have victories over Kansas and Houston, along with a very good win at Mackey Arena. Florida could very easily move into a one seed if they have a deep run in the SEC tournament. This team is No. 4 in the country in terms of SOS and are 15-6 in Quad 1 and 2 contests, and they are playing as good as anyone at the moment.
Houston has fallen a bit, but they are still undefeated in Quad 2, 3 and 4 games, going 15-5 against the top two quads. They don't have the sexiest non-conference SOS which brings them down in my book, and losing down the stretch won't win over the committee. Illinois could also break into a top seed like Florida, but knocking off Michigan tomorrow would be a must. They are top 15 in SOS and No. 4 overall in NET Rating, with just one loss outside of Quad 1.
Thijs de Ridder and Virginia have been the biggest surprise of the season for me personally
Three Seeds
The Jayhawks have played the second toughest schedule in college hoops and are 15-7 in Quad 1 and 2 games. Outside of conference play, they still have a top 15 non-conference SOS, which lifts them up in my book. Gonzaga must be on this line as they only have two losses, but a Quad 3 loss to Portland brings them down, and could move them to the four seed line if things don't go their way down the stretch. Nobody mention strength of schedule to Zags fans (they get mad).
Purdue has a tough test tonight against Michigan State, and a loss at home would cause me to flip them with the Spartans. The Boilermakers don't have a loss outside of Quad 1, but they also don't currently have a ranked win at home either. However they are still top 10 in NET SOS. Lastly, I have to respect what the Virginia Cavaliers have done this year. This team is top 13 in NET Rating, and although they don't have the best SOS overall, they are still 13-3 in Quad 1 and 2 games. They'll need Virginia Tech and Butler to make some noise down the stretch and make those early season losses look better than they are.
Alabama has played one of the toughest schedules in college hoops this year
Four Seeds
As I mentioned, Michigan State could flip with Purdue if they win on the road tonight. They have been perfect outside of Quad 1 games, and almost break the top 30 in terms of SOS. This game tonight could decide if they are or are not a top four seed in March. While I am hesitant to put Nebraska this high, they too, are perfect in non-Quad 1 games. The Huskers are 12-4 in Quad 1 and 2 contests, but their SOS doesn't allow me to seed them any higher.
The Crimson Tide are on top of the world. They are playing great, rank third in the country in SOS and are top 10 in non-conference SOS as well. This team is 14-7 in Quad 1 and 2 games, with the loss to Texas at home being their one blemish outside the top category. A run in the SEC tournament solidifies a top four seed. Texas Tech is sixth in the nation in SOS, they are top 15 in NET Rating, and they are perfect in non-Quad 1 games. Sure, losing JT Toppin hurts this team, but playing in the Big 12 is enough for me to give them the final spot on this seeding line.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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