#13 Michigan State vs. #8 Purdue Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Feb 26, 2026, 11:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Two teams near the top of the Big Ten battle it out in Mackey Arena tonight, as the fight for a two or three seed is on the line. We are still waiting for the No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers to knock off a ranked team at home this season, and this will be their last chance to do so as the No. 13 Michigan State Spartans and Tom Izzo come to town. Can the Boilermakers finally get over the hump and earn this win? Let's take a look at our CBB expert's favorite picks in this game and find out.
Best Bet: Purdue Team Total Under 75.5 (-118) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#13 Michigan State Spartans vs. #8 Purdue Boilermakers NCAA Basketball Insights
Jeremy Fears and the Spartans look to take down Purdue in Mackey Arena tonight
Purdue is 0-3 when ranked teams come into Mackey Arena. Now, they do have a couple of ranked wins this year, beating No. 8 Alabama in Tuscaloosa, knocking off No. 15 Texas Tech by 30 in the Bahamas, taking down No. 21 Auburn by 28 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, and upsetting No. 7 Nebraska in Lincoln. But No. 10 Iowa State, No. 11 Illinois and No. 1 Michigan all beat this team in Mackey Arena in fairly dominant fashion. Does the same fate await the hosts tonight?
Michigan State is on the four seed line prior to Wednesday's matchups but with no one ahead of them losing yet this week, that's where they will stay. Plus, Texas Tech and Alabama (other four seeds) both won, making the race even tighter. Thankfully for the Spartans, three projected five seeds lost this week (Arkansas, St. John's and Tennessee). But a win tonight on the road over a top 10 team could give the Spartans an argument to move up in the rankings.
Matchup Information – Michigan State vs. Purdue – February 26
- Venue & Location: Mackey Arena (West Lafayette, IN)
- Date: Thursday, February 26, 2026
- Kick Off: 8:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: Peacock
Michigan State vs. Purdue Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of February 26, 2026 at 10:24 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Michigan State +8 (-110)
- Purdue -8 (-110)
Moneyline
- Michigan State +270
- Purdue -350
Total
- Over 142.5 (-108)
- Under 142.5 (-112)
We have a couple of great back to back Big Ten matchups. Tonight we have this top 15 contest, and tomorrow we have the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines facing the No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini. The Spartans, Boilermakers, Illini and the Huskers are all fighting for the second seed in the Big Ten tournament, making games this weekend mean so much more.
#13 Michigan State vs. #8 Purdue NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Braden Smith and Purdue do not have a ranked win at home this season
Michigan State vs. Purdue Prediction: Purdue Wins, Michigan State Covers, Under 142.5
Best Bet: Purdue Team Total Under 75.5 (-118) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Both Purdue and Michigan are painfully slow, which should lead to a lower number of trips up and down the floor in this contest. The Spartans average about 66 possessions per game on the road, while Purdue puts up about 67 or so. While the Boilermaker's offense is very efficient, they don't take too many threes and are horrible at getting to the free throw line. Even at home, Purdue is No. 319 in the nation in FT Rate offense, getting to the stripe just 30% of the time. The Spartans are top 60 in that category defensively.
Plus, the Spartans are one of the best rebounding teams in the country, which is crucial when facing this Boilermaker's front court. I believe they'll be able to limit Purdue's trips to the free throw line and the second chance points that they rely on heavily. We just saw Purdue light up Indiana at home, but I'm betting that they aren't as hot from downtown in this game, plus the Spartans are a MUCH better team overall than the Hoosiers, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
Give me a very slow paced game with plenty of missed shots, resulting in Purdue staying under 75 total points.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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