Betting News Bracketology Top 4 Seeds (2/19): Argue With a Wall
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Feb 19, 2026, 7:45 pm ET
Read Time: 12 minutes
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We are less than a month away from Selection Sunday, which is basically a national holiday in my household. There will be 68 teams in the March Madness field, and another 10-12 will be left wondering what they could've done differently to earn a bid. With the big day being just a few short weeks away, it's time to dive into some Betting News Bracketology, and I've been given complete control of the situation.
In this piece, I'll be breaking down which teams I think are deserving of being seeded somewhere in the Top 4, and also discussing why I am absolutely, 100%, without a doubt correct in my selections. Happy Madness!
Betting News Bracketology
Elliot Cadeau and the Wolverines will be this year's No. 1 overall seed for March Madness
Now keep in mind, these selections were made as of 5:25 p.m. eastern on February 19, 2026. A lot can change before Selection Sunday on March 15. However, if the bracket was made today, here's how I would seed these teams.
1 Seeds (In Order)
Michigan Wolverines
Without question, the No. 1 overall seed in this bracket should, and will be, the Michigan Wolverines, assuming nothing crazy happens down the stretch. This team is 24-1 on the year, with the lone blemish coming at home against the Wisconsin Badgers, a team currently ranked No. 24 overall in the country (although they won't be next week). Regardless, you cannot deny the dominance this team has displayed.
They have six ranked wins on their resume and the chance to pick up three more before the Big Ten tournament, including a 40 (yes, 40) point victory over the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Even if they slip up in the conference tournament, Michigan should be the No. 1 overall seed.
Houston Cougars
Next up, we have last year's national runner ups, the Houston Cougars. Kelvin Sampson has reloaded and with just three losses to very good teams on the road, Houston has been nearly perfect. They've lost three games by a combined 10 points, all to ranked opponents, but have shown out otherwise.
However, this weekend against Arizona and then on Monday against Kansas at Phog Allen will really show us what this team is made of.
Will the Blue Devils be able to make a deep run in the tournament led by freshmen?
Duke Blue Devils
Even though I'm not as high on this team as others, Duke has done what it needs to do in order to capture a one seed. They have just two losses by a combined four points, to Texas Tech on a neutral site and to North Carolina in Chapel Hill. Just because I'll be looking to fade this team in the Sweet 16 or even the Round of 32, because they are led by freshman, those young hoopers have done enough to earn a spot on the top line.
Playing in a weaker ACC conference certainly helps them, with plenty of wins propping them up higher than they should be.
Arizona Wildcats
Of course, the last one seed needs to go to Arizona. The Wildcats were 23-0 to start the season, and losses to Kansas on the road by 4 and to Texas Tech by 3 in overtime don't necessarily rub me the wrong way. This team is incredibly talented, and played a tough non conference schedule as well, and that should be rewarded.
Arizona has ranked wins over Florida, UCLA, UConn, Auburn, Alabama and BYU (twice). They are more than deserving of the final top seed.
Milan Momcilovic and the Cyclones could jump into the final one seed with a big run in the Big 12 tournament
2 Seeds (In Order)
Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones certainly have the ability to move up, especially if they were to knock off Arizona or Houston in the Big 12 tournament. For a while, they had the single best win in college basketball by beating Purdue at Mackey Arena, and it's tough to deny the talent they have on both sides of the floor.
Is the Big 12 really deserving of three teams in the top five overall spots? The answer is yes.
UConn Huskies
Even after their loss to Creighton at home, the Huskies are a very talented team. Two of their three losses were to ranked teams (Arizona and St. Johns), and with Dan Hurley on the sidelines, they're never out of contention. Now, playing in the weaker Big East does not necessarily prepare them for a big run in the tournament, but I still see the Huskies ending the season by winning the conference championship and earning a spot as a two seed.
The fully healthy Illini team will be scary to face in March
Illinois Fighting Illini
Yes, I have the Illini jumping some teams and earning a spot with the twos. They are EXTREMELY talented, they are a defensive nightmare for their opponents, and if they can end the year strong, they certainly deserve this spot. The Illini rank No. 12 in the country in NET SOS (Strength of Schedule), and have proven they can compete with anyone with big wins over Nebraska and Purdue on the road.
Kansas Jayhawks
Call it a homer pick if you want, but I have the Jayhawks rounding out my two seeds. Kansas has played the third toughest schedule in all of college hoops, and even outside of the Big 12, rank No. 15 in non conference NET SOS. Darryn Peterson or not, the Jayhawks can compete with anyone at their best, and playing in the toughest conference in college hoops has to mean something.
Thomas Haugh and Florida have the most to gain from a deep SEC Tournament run
3 Seeds (In Order)
Purdue Boilermakers
I was hesitant to give the Boilermakers the top spot in the three seed line, but they do rank sixth in the nation in NET SOS. Now, time and time again, Purdue shows everyone they cannot compete with the best of the best, especially with home losses to Iowa State, Illinois and Michigan, but I still believe they are the third best team in the Big Ten (sorry, Nebraska fans), and that conference is still the clear second best in college basketball in my eyes.
Florida Gators
While the Gators are currently on the three seed line, this team has the potential to jump all the way into consideration for a one seed if they make a deep run in the SEC tournament. They have played the fifth toughest schedule in college hoops, and if you've been paying attention, they might be the hottest team in the country at the moment.
Florida is 15-2 since losing to Duke and UConn in back to back games, and I don't believe they should be punished for those losses. While it will be harder for other teams to make the leap, Todd Golden's team can certainly compete for a one seed by winning out.
Pryce Sandfort and the Huskers are one of my final three seeds in the tournament, as of right now
Nebraska Cornhuskers
I've been praying for this team's downfall ever since they claimed themselves "Basketball Capital of the World", but they are still No. 10 in the country and have only four losses. Three of those were to ranked opponents who I have seeded higher than them, and the fourth was to a very good Iowa Hawkeyes team on the road.
While there aren't many chances for them to move up, a deep run in a stacked Big Ten tournament could possibly propel them ahead of some others on this list.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Sure, they lost JT Toppin. I get it. He's a huge part of this teams' success. But if they continue to compete without him, they are deserving of the final three seed spot. Four of their six losses have come against ranked teams, and the other two were on the road in flukey spots (at UCF prior to hosting Kansas and at Arizona State after upsetting No. 1 Arizona).
They've played the fourth toughest schedule in college basketball and have done so in the hardest conference in the country. You cannot punish them for catching the unfortunate injury bug.
January, February, Izzo April. Can the Spartans make some noise in the NCAA Tournament?
4 Seeds (In Order)
Gonzaga Bulldogs
I don't necessarily think Gonzaga is deserving of this seed, but it's tough to leave them off with only two losses. But yes, I will be holding those Ls against them and leaving them off of a top three seed. They lost to the No. 1 overall Michigan Wolverines by 40 points on a neutral site, and were taken down by the Portland Pilots (as 22 point favorites).
Mark Few and the Zags should be able to sleep walk to an undefeated WCC regular season, and they couldn't even do that. However, they are still one of the most experienced teams in college basketball, so it will be interesting to see if playing in a cupcake conference prepares them for the tournament.
Michigan State Spartans
We have to give a nod to the Spartans for playing in the Big Ten and playing a top 25 schedule in terms of NET SOS. They have ranked wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and Illinois, but have also dropped a couple of unranked games against Minnesota and Wisconsin down the stretch. If they can knock off Purdue at Mackey Arena in a few games, they have an argument to flip seeds with the Boilermakers.
Alabama have earned a top four seed considering they are second in the country in NET SOS
Virginia Cavaliers
Who would've thought Virginia would be talked about as a four seed when the season began? Certainly not I. But with just three losses, they must be considered. Sure, unranked losses to Butler and Virginia Tech don't help their resume, but they have still played a tougher schedule than someone else on this line (cough, cough, Gonzaga), so I think they've earned it.
Alabama Crimson Tide
In the final four seed spot, we have the Crimson Tide. Sure, they maybe bent the rules a little bit to get some tough wins, but they've played the second toughest schedule in college hoops, and a top 10 non conference schedule as well. I don't have too much faith in this team come tourney time, but regardless, the games need to matter, and Alabama has won enough to earn this top four seed.
Mikel Brown Jr. makes Louisville a MUCH better team when he is healthy and on the floor
Next Four Teams (5 Seeds)
The next teams to keep an eye on as the season closes are Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Louisville, St. Johns. All have the ability to move up if some of these higher seeded teams don't go very far in their conference tournaments.
Hypothetical Regions
If my seeds were signed into law, here's how those schools would be arranged in the bracket.
Midwest Region: Michigan, Kansas, Purdue, Alabama
South Region: Houston, Illinois, Florida, Virginia
East Region: Duke, UConn, Texas Tech, Michigan State
West Region: Arizona, Iowa State, Nebraska, Gonzaga
But what do I know? I'm a JAG (Just a Guy).
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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