Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions: Final Saturday of the Regular Season
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Fri Mar 06, 2026, 9:50 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
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Tomorrow is the final monstrous Saturday slate of the College Hoops regular season. Our CBB experts found plenty of NCAA Basketball picks to keep you entertained all day long.
Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions March 7
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Boston College Golden Eagles NCAA Basketball Picks
Best Bet: Notre Dame/Boston College Under 141.5 (-110 Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
We are starting off our Saturday with an under in the Northeast. Two ACC teams go head to head, and I don't trust either offense to put the ball in the hoop. Not because either defense is outstanding, but because these teams can't shoot and play at a slow pace. Notre Dame ranks No. 271 in possessions per game, dropping to No. 288 on the road. Boston College is the same way, ranking No. 277 in tempo, with both teams averaging about 66 trips up and down the floor.
That's not going to be enough for Boston College who ranks north of 300 in eFG% and No. 297 in FT Rate offense. Plus, defensively, they rank in the top 65, despite coming in at No. 138 nationally overall. Point being, their defense is much better than their offense. Plus, BC is top 65 in FT Rate defense as well and don't grab very many offensive rebounds, a side of the ball that Notre Dame excels at.
These teams only saw 132 total points on 64 possessions in their first meeting, and nothing should change in the regular season finale.
SMU Mustangs vs. Florida State Seminoles NCAA Basketball Picks
SMU desperately needs a win in order to get back into the field of 68 for March Madness
Best Bet: SMU/Florida State Over 159.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
These teams embrace speed. We see plenty of tempo between the two, and most advanced analytic sites have this one going comfortably over the listed total. The Ponies are top 100 in pace this year, and the Seminoles are top 20. We are going to see plenty of trips up and down the floor, which will translate into plenty of offensive opportunities. We saw 163 points on just 68 possessions in Moody Coliseum earlier this year, and I expect an even faster paced game on Saturday.
Florida State relies heavily on the three ball to produce points. While they don't shoot it as well as I'd like, the Ponies perimeter defense is abysmal. They are bottom 10 in three point attempts allowed, and let their foes shoot nearly 34% from beyond the arc. Feed me points in Tallahassee.
#25 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. #23 Tennessee Volunteers NCAA Basketball Picks
Can Vanderbilt get revenge on Tennessee in Knoxville this weekend?
Best Bet: Vanderbilt +4 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
This line is ticking down, as it opened at 4.5 and is now at 3.5 on most books. We snagged a flat four, but I think the Commodores can win outright. The Volunteers give up far too many threes, which is a major part of this Vanderbilt offense. Plus, the visitors will have revenge on their mind, trying to end this historic season on a high note.
While Tennessee's defense is one of the best in the country, they do struggle to defend the perimeter. Giving the Commodores extra chances from deep will simply allow them to find their groove and start knocking them down, putting Rick Barnes' team in their coffin.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. #6 Iowa State Cyclones NCAA Basketball Picks
Best Bet: Arizona State Team Total Under 66.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
This line hasn't dropped, but I'll play anything above 65.5. The Cyclones absolutely smother opposing offenses in Hilton Coliseum. They rank No. 13 in the nation in points per game allowed, holding teams to 65.8, but that number drops to 62.6 in Ames, which is still top 15 in the nation.
Coming off a huge upset win over Kansas, I doubt Arizona State will be able to regroup and light up the scoreboard for a second straight game, especially in enemy territory.
#17 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. #1 Duke Blue Devils NCAA Basketball Picks
The Tar Heels are catching way too many points on the road against Duke
Best Bet: North Carolina +17.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Even without Caleb Wilson, this line feels disrespectful. Yes, the Blue Devils are one of the best teams in the country. Sure, they are looking for revenge against their rival. But ultimately they don't need this win. They have the top seed in the ACC locked up. This team will likely be a one seed in the Big Dance, assuming they at least win a couple games in the conference tournament next week.
North Carolina is talented enough to at least make this a competitive game; keeping it within 15 should be a breeze.
UC San Diego Tritons vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos NCAA Basketball Picks
Best Bet: UC Santa Barbara -2.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
This money line is ever so slightly too juicy for my liking, but I trust the Gauchos to win by three and cover this spread. They already beat this team on the road by 14, and the Tritons offense isn't efficient enough to compete in a low scoring game. They rank north of 290 in FT Rate offense , FT% and offensive rebounds, so don't expect them to add any extra points.
As for the Gauchos, they will control this game and slow things down. We only saw 66 possessions in the earlier meeting, and UCSB is bottom 35 in the nation in tempo. However, they shoot lights out, especially from deep, and rank top 20 in defensive rebounding. Give me the Gauchos to complete the season sweep, something they haven't done against UC San Diego since the 2023 season.
#10 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. BYU Cougars NCAA Basketball Picks
Donovan Atwell is a human flame thrower from downtown for Texas Tech
Best Bet: Texas Tech Team Total Over 78.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
The team total hasn't dropped quite yet, but BYU's defense gives me the heebie jeebies. They can't guard anybody, especially on the perimeter where the Red Raiders shoot nearly 40%. I also don't hate the Red Raiders catching two points on the road, and even like them outright, much like I do with Vandy.
Texas Tech has found ways to win without JT Toppin, but the same can't really be said about the Cougars without Richie Saunders. BYU has lost three straight and four of their last five, and the Red Raiders still have plenty of motivation as they try to lock up the No. 3 seed in the Big 12, as well as a potential top three or four seed for March Madness.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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