Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions (2/21): Saturday College Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Fri Feb 20, 2026, 10:37 pm ET
Read Time: 8 minutes
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We have another slate with triple digit college hoops games to bet on! Let's waste no time and get into our favorite NCAA Basketball picks for Saturday's massive betting board.
Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions February 21
#12 Florida vs. Ole Miss NCAA Basketball Picks
Florida should dismantle the Rebels in Oxford, but both teams can put up some points
Best Bet: Florida/Ole Miss Over 150 (-109) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Now I snagged this at 147.5 earlier on Friday afternoon, but I still think this number is playable. The Gators are dominant on both sides of the ball. Plus they aren't afraid to run, ranking top 50 in the nation in possessions per game. Ole Miss is much, much slower, but they are going to give up easy points to their visitors at the free throw line and on second chance opportunities.
The Rebels are bottom 80 in offensive rebounds allowed and north of 300 in FT Rate defense. Offensively for the Gators, they are literally the best rebounding team in the country and are top 85 at getting to the stripe. Scoring should come easy for Florida, and we should see enough possessions to get over this total.
Notre Dame vs. Pittsburgh NCAA Basketball Picks
Best Bet: Notre Dame/Pittsburgh Under 138.5 (-111) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Both of these offenses play painfully slow and make me want to projectile vomit. The Irish are No. 277 in pace and No. 310 in assist rate, which I interpret as a stagnant, inefficient offense. They don't get to the free throw line, and even when they make it to the charity stripe, the team shoots less than 70%. One good thing I can say about the Irish is that they limit second chance points from their opponents.
Pittsburgh is bottom 30 in tempo and also bottom 50 at getting to the stripe. Much like the Irish, they don't make them when they do get there, shooting just 66% from the free throw line as a team. They also do a good job of limiting their visitors' offensive rebounds, but the pace alone should be enough to keep this game well under the total.
Georgia Tech vs. #21 Louisville NCAA Basketball Picks
Mikel Brown Jr. and Louisville host the Yellow Jackets on Saturday
Best Bet: Louisville -22.5 (-119) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
This is a LARGE number for the Cardinals to cover, but let me tell you why it's going to happen. For starters, they are at home, where their eFG% is above 58.5%, ranking top 20 in the country. They shoot the ball lights out at the KFC Yum! Center, and are fifth in the nation in 3P Rate. Most of their offense comes from beyond the arc, and they average nearly 73 possessions per game.
Georgia Tech is just as fast, and they couldn't defend the perimeter if their life depended on it. The Yellow Jackets are top 25 in pace, but on the road rank bottom 30 in opponent 3P Rate and are north of 260 (bottom 100) in opponent 3P%, allowing their hosts to shoot nearly 37% from beyond the arc. We've already seen Louisville run up the score on sorry opponents in their home gym, and against a team that is bottom 10 in FT Rate defense, they should have no problem scoring. The Cardinals team total could also be a look, but it will likely be around 94.5 given the lack of quality opponent they face.
#4 Arizona vs. #2 Houston NCAA Basketball Picks
Kingston Flemings has 10 games with at least 20+ points this season for the Cougars
Best Bet: Arizona/Houston Over 141.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I got this total at 139.5 which is gone now. However, I expect this game to be close, which could easily translate to lots of free throws down the stretch, adding to the total. Houston is a defensive minded team, but they rank north of 285 in FT Rate defense. Against a team like Arizona that prides themselves on attacking the hoop, I see the Wildcats spending plenty of time at the charity stripe.
The visitors will also try to speed things up, but Houston's offense is good enough to hang with them and they should be more offensive focused after scoring just 67 points on the road against Iowa State. The Cougars also have a couple extra days of rest, which I think will come into play, making it easier for them to contribute to this over.
Missouri vs. #20 Arkansas NCAA Basketball Picks
Best Bet: Missouri/Arkansas Over 160.5 (-115) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
CLV Shaggy at it again, as I snagged 159.5 at -115, but that is still available as of this writing. Do your line shopping (as you always should). The Tigers are coming off a home upset win over Vanderbilt while Arkansas lost a heartbreaker to Alabama in double OT on the road. Could that be a sign to simply back the Hogs on the spread? Possibly, and I definitely lean that way.
However Arkansas is going to run. They lead the country in taking care of the basketball and rank top 30 in possessions per game while still breaking the top 20 in eFG%. Missouri does not have a defense, especially on the road, but they do pretty much everything right offensively. They draw fouls, crash the boards, and are somehow top 40 in eFG% as well. Plenty of points should be scored, as both teams will have tons of opportunities to put the ball in the hoop.
#1 Michigan vs. #3 Duke NCAA Basketball Picks
Two of the best teams in college basketball meet in D.C., and we're getting spicy with a same game parlay
Best Bet: Michigan ML/Over 148.5 (+230) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
We've got a full unit on this scrumptious same game parlay. I like Michigan to cover the number and the over individually, but I'll opt for this SGP to get more bang for my buck. The Wolverines will push the pace, creating more chances for two very efficient offenses to put the ball in the hoop. However, Michigan has more scoring options in my mind. They'll use them to flex their muscle over the Duke freshmen.
Yes, the total is up to 151.5, but we've seen Duke get sped up to their quick opponents, and the Wolverines have no interest in making this a rock fight. A higher scoring game is exactly what Dusty May's squad will want.
#6 Iowa State vs. #23 BYU NCAA Basketball Picks
Best Bet: Iowa State -4 (-107) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
The Cyclones have had two more days of rest than the Cougars, and I expect that to come into play in what should be a fast paced game. BYU is lost without Richie Saunders. AJ Dybantsa put up 35 points against Arizona to singlehandedly keep them in the game, but I don't think he's able to do it again against the Iowa State defense.
The visitors have two of the best on ball defenders in college basketball, and they should make Robert Wright's life hell on Earth as he tries to provide some assistance to the future No. 2 overall pick in the NBA draft. Look for the Cyclones to earn a rocking chair winner on the road as they push to be included with the other one seeds.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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