Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions: Thursday Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Feb 05, 2026, 11:26 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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While tonight's college hoops slate isn't the most appealing, there are still spots to be found! We have 51 NCAA Basketball games to choose from today, and our experts found some of their favorite picks. Let's get right into it as Super Bowl Weekend quickly approaches!
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Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions February 5
Merrimack Warriors vs. Mount Saint Mary's Mountaineers NCAA Basketball Picks
Kevair Kennedy leads Merrimack in points, rebounds, assists and steals per game
Best Bet: Merrimack/Mt. St. Mary's Under 133.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I couldn't book this quick enough when I saw the number. Now, I was able to jump on the under 135.5 last night before this ticked down a couple of points, but I still think it is more than playable, as I expect no more than 130 total points in this game. Let's just look at the raw numbers.
The Merrimack Warriors rank No. 185 overall on Bart Torvik, but they are north of 230 overall offensively and are No. 298 in eFG%. However, defensively, they are No. 138 overall and top 45 in opponent eFG% and turnovers forced, but they play painfully slow, ranking bottom 20 in pace, averaging just over 63 possessions per game. So they are a slow team that is much better on the defensive side of the ball. Mount Saint Mary's is the same way.
The Mountaineers are No. 300 overall, and jump to No. 345 in adjusted offensive efficiency, which is bottom 20 in the nation. They are also third worst at taking care of the basketball. However, despite these bad rankings, they are a top 200 team overall defensively and are top 65 in opponent eFG%, so clearly they do something right on the defensive end of the floor. This metric also improves to No. 35 in the country in their own gym. Plus, this team is No. 153 overall in tempo, but they jump all the way to No. 261 on their home floor, meaning they are more than okay with slowing things down.
So we have two teams that play slow, aren't anything special on offense, but get in your face and play great defense. This screams under for me.
Long Beach State Beach vs. UC San Diego Tritons NCAA Basketball Picks
Leo Beath leads the Tritons in scoring with 14.5 per game, adding 5.1 rebounds as well
Best Bet: UC San Diego -9 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Fade the Beach with me on the road tonight against the Tritons of UC San Diego (not to be confused with the San Diego Toreros). Long Beach is just 8-15 overall and have lost four straight games to drop to 4-7 in Big West play. In the conference, UC San Diego isn't much better, posting a 5-6 record but they are 15-8 overall and are performing at a higher level than their visitors tonight. Plus, the Tritons are also looking to end a losing streak (three games) and it's much easier to do that on your home floor, especially as nearly double digit favorites.
Fade the Beach
The Beach are 1-10 straight up on the road this season, mainly because their offense sucks. They are north of 310 in offensive efficiency, eFG% and drop to bottom 35 in turnover rate. Defensively, they are also north of 300 in opponent eFG% and FT Rate defense, sending teams to the line over 45% of the time. It's also worth mentioning, they can't hit anything from downtown, shooting less than 27% as a team.
While the offense of UC San Diego isn't giving me much faith, their defense should be the kicker in this game. The Tritons are No. 127 overall but break the top 65 in terms of opponent eFG%, and are top 50 in offensive rebounds allowed as well. They also struggle to hit from downtown, but I don't expect them to be down big in this game, thus they won't need the extra buckets to try and compete, like the Beach might.
Ultimately, I think this line is this big for a reason. They were 8.5 point favorites on the road in their first Big West meeting against the Beach, beating them by six. Because this line hasn't changed much, some have lost faith in the Tritons, but I think this is a perfect spot for them to turn things around for the last half of conference play.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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