Some will complain that Friday juniors are not fun, that they do not have the juice. This matchup should have everything a college hoops die hard craves. The general public loves points, points, and more points, so maybe give your dad a call and hang out, because this one is shaping up to be a rock fight between the West Virginia Mountaineers and the Cincinnati Bearcats.
This marks the second meeting between these two Big 12 foes. The first matchup took place on January 6th, when West Virginia edged Cincinnati 62 to 60 in Morgantown. In that game, the Mountaineers closed as a short 1.5 point favorite, with a total of 132.5. Now in Cincinnati, the total opened at 125.5 and has climbed a full four points, while the spread has remained steady between 5.5 and 6.0 in favor of the Bearcats. Despite this being a clear revenge spot for Cincinnati at home, coming off a brutal loss to Houston, I still believe this game stays low. If the spread can tell a story, the opening total of 125.5 can as well.
Pace & Defense
West Virginia is the sixth slowest team in the country. On the road, they are the third slowest. Cincinnati prefers to run at home, ranking 60th in tempo nationally. However, in 12 games against top 100 opponents, the Bearcats pace drops all the way to 262nd. West Virginia head coach Ross Hodge knows he has to keep this game slow. His offense will not be able to keep up if Cincinnati is knocking down shots.
Both teams lean heavily on their defense, which defines their identity. At home this season, the Bearcats own the third best defense in the nation. They excel at protecting the interior, blocking shots, and forcing turnovers. Offensively, even on their home floor, they struggle mightily, ranking 219th in eFG%, 319th in three point percentage, and 318th in free throw percentage. Their offense is a no show regardless of venue.
The Mountaineers face similar issues, but the road is where things really slip. Their defense still ranks 83rd away from home, yet they have struggled overall, sitting 333rd in eFG% defense, 348th in three point percentage defense, and 356th in defensive block percentage.
This is only a four game sample size, which is small, but consider the competition. Iowa State, Houston, Arizona State, and Arizona. Three of those four teams are ranked inside the top ten. That is a completely different stratosphere than Cincinnati. As a reference point, Houston held the Bearcats to 54 points on Saturday, Arizona held them to 51, and Arizona State kept them under 70. Yes, I am aware Cincinnati upset Iowa State.
To expand the sample on West Virginia, in eight road games they still own a top 100 defense, but the offense remains the issue, ranking 244th in eFG%. That is what matters most. This game should look very similar to the first meeting between these two teams. The number has been creeping up over the last 12 hours, and I would not be shocked to see 130, but I fully endorse anything above the opening 125.5. CUE UP MEN AT WORK!!
