Australia vs. Slovenia Prediction and Picks: Luka Magic Looks to Upset the Aussies

Varun Sharma

Written by: Varun Sharma

Last Updated:

Read Time: 5 minutes

Australia vs. Slovenia Prediction and Picks: Luka Magic Looks to Upset the Aussies cover


The FIBA World Cup is off to an electric start. France came into the tournament as one of the top 3 teams predicted to win the Gold, only to get eliminated after just two games.

While the World Cup may not have the same hype here in North America, it’s the opposite everywhere else. Nicolas Batum described it best, “I’m scared to go home [France].”

These players have chosen to represent their countries with just one goal in mind, a podium finish, anything less is inexcusable.

Australia vs. Slovenia Game Information

The next generation of International competition, Josh Giddey (left) & Luka Doncic (right)

Matchup Information

  • Location: Okinawa Arena; Okinawa, Japan
  • Date: September 1st, 2023
  • Time: 8:10 AM EST

Betting Odds

Courtesy of Bovada


  • Slovenia +6 (-115)
  • Australia -6 (-115)


  • Slovenia (+210)
  • Australia (-260)


  • Over 177.5 (-115)
  • Under 177.5 (-105)

Australia vs. Slovenia Breakdown & Best Bets

Luka Doncic & Patty Mills in the Bronze Medal Game, 2020 Tokyo Summer Olympics

Last time we saw these two squads matched up was the Bronze Medal game in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. Patty Mills and the Aussies took home the Bronze, beating Doncic and the Slovenians 107-93.

Since then Luka’s come out and averaged 28/game in 2021/22, following it up w 33/game last season, in the NBA. He’s currently in the best shape he’s ever been, and averaging 30/game on 45% in the Tournament.

On the flip side, this Australian team is very different than it was in the olympics. Led by Josh Giddey and Patty Mills, both guys are averaging 19/game on 47% and 49% respectively. They went 2-1 in the group stage, losing their only real test so far, Germany.

Luka Doncic o30.5 Points (-114)

Doncic is currently averaging 30 PPG on 46% shooting in the FIBA World Cup

Luka’s been nothing short of incredible to kick off the tournament, scoring 37 and 34 in his first two games; then following it up with 19 points 9 assists and 7 rebounds.

He’s averaging 30/7/8 through three games, all games in which Slovenia was the heavy favorite. Luka comes into tomorrow’s game as a six point dog, against the same squad that cost him a Bronze Medal in Tokyo. Someone say revenge?

Slovenia’s two games in Round 2 will come against Australia and Germany, both top teams in this tournament. Stealing a game against Australia could be what the Slovenians need to get into the elimination round.

Luka’s averaging 18 FGA/game in the tournament, and getting to the line 14.7 times/game. Next highest usage belongs to Klemen Prepelic, who’s taking 9 FGA/game.

Luka can punch Slovenia’s ticket to the Quarter-Finals and basically eliminate Australia from the World Cup with a win tomorrow morning, push the button.

Josh Giddey o16.5 Points (-115)

Josh Giddey is currently averaging 19 PPG and 7 APG in the FIBA World Cup

Like I said above, this game is basically do or die for the Aussies. With a loss to the Slovenians, it’s pretty much time to go home.

Germany and Slovenia are both undefeated, and with a Slovenia win, both they and the Germans would finish above Australia; despite how any remaining games go.

Giddey is currently averaging 19/game on 47% shooting, he’s attempting 15 shots/game, second to Patty Mills in usage (16 FGA/game).

We saw Giddey up his scoring to 17/game in the 2nd half of last season, all while playing next to SGA. He put up 31 against the Pelicans in their play-in game, on 50% shooting.

His role offensively is much more prominent on this Australian team, so I’m expecting him to step up in this win or go home type atmosphere.

Slovenia had one of the easier groups in the first round, Australia should prove to be their first true test. Australia is scoring 96.3 PPG, with Slovenia’s round 1 opponents scoring on average 74/game.

If the Aussies want to avoid going home early, they’ll need both Giddey and Patty to step up offensively.

Slovenia +6 vs. Australia (-110)

Australia has the depth, but Slovenia has Luka. It’s super tough for me to pick a winner here, but I’m banking on Luka to keep this game close.

Luka took this same Slovenian team to a Bronze Medal game in the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, averaging 28/game. Now he’s back with two more full NBA seasons under his belt.

Luka cut significant weight coming into this tournament, he’s playing 31 min/game, taking 30% of the team’s shots, and scoring 32% of their points; and they have yet to face a real opponent.

He’s here to compete, and he’s here to win games. Luka Magic, that’s what we’re all here to see right?

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Varun Sharma
Varun Sharma

You may know me as ‘VSaaauce’. I’ve been a die hard hoops fan my entire life. I’ve been betting on the NBA/NCAAB/NFL/MLB for six years now, each year gaining more and more knowledge about being a profitable handicapper. I’m eager to learn, and eager to pass on everything I’ve gained over the last few years. I started my Twitter page four years ago, and this community makes me so thankful I did. Outside of sports and handicapping, I enjoy traveling, hoopin, a strong espresso and I’m currently studying to obtain my MD. I’m all about the vibes, good vibes only. If that sounds like you, follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce.

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