Middy Mondays — Expert Picks in the NBA Today (10/25)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Mon Oct 26, 2026, 2:24 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nba
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+14.5
-115
233
-110u
+522
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-14
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-710
Happy Monday. Mondays are just so much better with a full slate of NBA Games to go with it. It's the first Monday of the new season and we've 18 teams in action, 9 games across the league and a whole bunch of stars out on the hardwood.
Let's jump into my three favorite props tonight.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page.
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Cooper Flagg o11.5 A/R (-130) | Lucky Rebel
Cooper Flagg had a scare the other night when he came down awkwardly on his shoulder. He missed the Mavericks last game, but today he was back at shootaround and he's since been upgraded to probable for tonight's game.
I usually avoid assists props on the road, but tonight against this Heat defense, I'll make an exception. Miami's giving up 124.7 PPG this year (26th), allowing teams to shoot 47.6% (22nd) and 42% from the perimeter (30th).
Miami's high pace of play is crucial to how they run their offense, but it's also why they give up a ton of open shots and a ton of points. The faster they play, the more possessions they give to their opponents and when you're letting your opponent shoot 42% from the perimeter, you're in store for a bad time.
The Heat are giving up 18.3 made 3s per game, their opponents are taking an average of 43.7 attempts per game and 79% of those attempts are open/wide-open.
Flagg's played in 2 games this year, the first was a blowout loss to the Houston Rockets and then a win over Indiana in which he played just 17 minutes due to injury. Against the Rockets, Flagg finished with 5 rebounds and jus 2 assists on 9 potential assists.
In the win over Indiana, Flagg played just 17 minutes due to the shoulder injury and finished with 5 rebounds, 6 assists and 11 potential assists. We know how fast Indiana plays and how they also have a tendency to bleed points; just like this Miami squad.
Jayson Tatum o6.5 Assists (-114) | Lucky Rebel
Jayson Tatum has 17 & 16 potential assists in 2 games this year. He's played two of the slowest paced teams in the NBA & the Celtics haven't cracked 115 points.
The Bulls play at the highest pace in the NBA and they have allowed 128.0 PPG so far this year. Chicago's allowed teams to shoot 47.5% from the field this year and they've given up the 27th most assists per game.
Tatum's seeing a 31.6% usage rate this year, he's accounted for 46% of the team's assists this year and he's averaging 23.5 assist-points per game through two games.
Good things happen when Tatum has the ball in his hands and we've seen it first hand already this year. Tatum's had 11 and 7 assists in his first two games and the Celtics have yet to really explode offensively.
Tonight's game against the Bulls feels like the perfect spot for that explosion.
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Tyrese Haliburton o33.5 PRA (-110) | Lucky Rebel
You know I love a good narrative and one of my favorite narratives in all of sports is when a guy gets to come and play in his hometown. Tyrese Haliburton is back after missing all of last year with an achilles tear and the vibes couldn't be better in Indiana.
The Pacers have won 2 of their first 3 games. The team's averaging 121.3 PPG this year, they're shooting 51.3% from the field and this is while being pretty bad from the perimeter.
Not only is Haliburton back, but he's out there with no restrictions. Haliburtion's playing 32.3 minutes per game so far this year, averaging 21.7 points, 4.0 rebounds and 9.7 assists per game. He's shooting 53.3% from the field and 35.3% from beyond the arc.
Hali's avergaing 17.3 potential assists per game through the first 3 games, the Pacers are scoring the 5th most points on the fast break and this Milwaukee team's playing at an incredible speed.
The Bucks are 2nd in pace through 3 games, 30th in points allowed and that's all while holding teams to 31% from outside. This Indiana offense is one of the most potent offenses in the NBA and it's lead by Wisconsin's own, Tyrese Haliburton.
Haliburton hasn't played here in Milwaukee since March 0f 2025, but he does love playing here. He's played at the Fiserv Forum 8 different times in his career.
In those 8 games, he's averaging 22.6 points, 5.4 rebounds and 10.6 assists per game. Hali' shot 53.5% from the field in these 8 games, 38.6% from the perimeter and he took an average of 16.1 shot attempts per game.
Haliburton loves playing in Wisconsin.
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You may know me as ‘VSaaauce’. I’ve been a die hard hoops fan my entire life. I’ve been betting on the NBA/NCAAB/NFL/MLB for six years now, each year gaining more and more knowledge about being a profitable handicapper. I’m eager to learn, and eager to pass on everything I’ve gained over the last few years. I started my Twitter page four years ago, and this community makes me so thankful I did. Outside of sports and handicapping, I enjoy traveling, hoopin, a strong espresso and I’m currently studying to obtain my MD. I’m all about the vibes, good vibes only. If that sounds like you, follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce.
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