South Point 400 Predictions, Odds & Picks: Another 1-2 Finish for Hendrick Motorsports at Las Vegas?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Sat Oct 14, 2023, 12:05 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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Only eight drivers remain in the mix to win this season's NASCAR Cup Series championship, and we have three races to navigate before the season finale at Phoenix Raceway on November 5. First up in the Round of 8 is tomorrow's South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (2:30 pm ET, NBC).
Last week, the Round of 12 wrapped up with the Bank of America Roval 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway.
For the first time in this year's playoffs, a non-playoff driver took the win. Road course ace A.J. Allmendinger held off a hard-charging William Byron over the final laps to pick up his third Cup Series win, his first since winning at Indy in August 2021.
The end of the line came for Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain, Brad Keselowski, and Bubba Wallace, with Busch, who finished third, coming the closest to winning and advancing.
Here's a look at the standings heading into the Round of 8:
- William Byron – 4041
- Martin Truex Jr. – 4036
- Denny Hamlin – 4032
- Kyle Larson – 4024
- Chris Buescher – 4021
- Christopher Bell – 4016
- Tyler Reddick – 4016
- Ryan Blaney – 4014
In the first Vegas race of the season, the Pennzoil 400, Hendrick Motorsports swept the top three spots, with William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Alex Bowman finishing first, second, and third.
Could we see a similar result tomorrow? Larson and Byron are the top two favorites, while the other two drivers in the Hendrick stable will both fancy their chances to contend.
Odds to Win the 2023 South Point 400
Odds are via Bovada.
- Kyle Larson +400
- Denny Hamlin +600
- William Byron +650
- Tyler Reddick +750
- Martin Truex Jr. +850
- Christopher Bell +1200
- Kyle Busch +1400
- Ryan Blaney +1400
- Chase Elliott +1600
- Bubba Wallace +1800
- Brad Keselowski +2000
- Chris Buescher +2000
- Joey Logano +2000
- Ross Chastain +2000
- Ty Gibbs +3000
- Alex Bowman +3300
- Kevin Harvick +3300
- Erik Jones +4000
2023 South Point 400 Predictions and Picks
To this point, the playoffs have not gone particularly well for Martin Truex Jr. The regular season champion has finished 18th, 36th, 19th, 17th, 18th, and 20th in the first six races.
But just like he did just enough in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol to reach the Round of 12, he did enough at Charlotte to move on, with none of the other perilously placed contenders able to dislodge him.
Due to the points resetting at the start of each round, his championship hopes are still very much alive and well. And there is something to be said for merely surviving, especially considering what went on with some of the eliminated drivers.
But he needs results now, otherwise his title aspirations will end short of the Championship 4.
Fortunately, Las Vegas Motor Speedway is a track that he likes. Loves, in fact, based on his results there over the years and especially starting with his championship year in 2017.
NASCAR Cup Series at Las Vegas Results for Martin Truex Jr.
- 22 ddd2023 (#1): 7th
- 2022 (#2): 7th
- 2022 (#1): 8th
- 2021 (#2): 4th
- 2021 (#1): 6th
- 2020 (#2): 4th
- 2020 (#1): 20th
- 2019 (#2): 1st
- 2019 (#1): 8th
- 2018 (#2): 3rd
- 2018 (#1): 4th
- 2017: 1st
- 2016: 11th
- 2015: 2nd
- 2014: 14th
- 2013: 8th
- 2012: 17th
- 2011: 6th
- 2010: 20th
- 2009: 32nd
- 2008: 15th
- 2007: 12th
- 2006: 20th
He is +140 at Bovada for a top-five finish, and despite his struggles thus far in the playoffs, I'm not passing on those odds.
Denny Hamlin should also have a much better Sunday than he did last weekend. He finished 37th at Charlotte, but his place in the Round of 8 was secure before the end of the race.
Hamlin won the South Point 400 in 2021, finished fifth in last year's race, and came in third in 2020.
I have noted previously that I don't love doing many finishing position picks that have a lot of juice. But Hamlin at -140 for a top-five finish is still solid value. Over his last 18 races, Hamlin has finished outside of the top five in consecutive races only twice.
At this point of the season, a lot of my focus is on the drivers who are in the playoffs.
But Hendrick Motorsports' two non-playoff drivers are both worth a look this week.
Chase Elliott posted another solid finish last week, coming in ninth. It was his seventh straight finish inside the top 11, and while he himself is not in the playoffs, his team remains in the running for the owner championship.
Last Seven Races for Chase Elliott
- Bank of America Roval 400 (Charlotte): 9th
- YellaWood 500 (Talladega): 7th
- Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 (Texas): 11th
- Bass Pro Shops Night Race (Bristol): 7th
- Hollywood Casino 400 (Kansas): 6th
- Cook Out Southern 500 (Darlington): 8th
- Coke Zero Sugar 400 (Daytona): 4th
As a result, there is a lot of incentive for him to continue to push for wins and high finishes, in addition to just looking to end a disappointing year on a high note.
As with Hamlin, I am quite happy to deal with the juice and back Elliott for a top-ten finish at -150, given how well he is running right now.
Also, Bowman (+100 for a top-ten finish) has a win (the 2022 Pennzoil 400) and three top-six finishes in his last seven starts at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. He finished eighth last week and has finished in the top 13 six times in his last nine races. So, he is a solid pick as well.
This week's picks, including the race winner pick(s), are going to be very Hendrick-centered, even though an HMS driver has yet to win the South Point 400.
South Point 400 Winners
- 2022: Joey Logano
- 2021: Denny Hamlin
- 2020: Kurt Busch
- 2019: Martin Truex Jr.
- 2018: Brad Keselowski
Oy not be able to replicate the 1-2-3 finish that they had in the first Vegas race this year, but I'm rolling with Hendrick to be the winning team (+180) and splitting my race winner outlay between Byron and Larson.
Where to Bet on the NASCAR Cup Series
Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Throughout the season, you can bet on races like the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, and others.
Along with being able to bet on the winner of each Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and/or Truck Series race, sportsbooks like Bovada offer finishing position odds (top 3, top 5, and/or top 10).
Also, odds on who will finish at the top of the championship standings are available at many reputable sportsbooks.
In addition to Bovada, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in NASCAR betting:
If you don't have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.
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