Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Truex’s Title Hopes End in Bristol?

The format of the NASCAR playoffs means that a driver can have a fantastic season go up in smoke–literally and figuratively–with even just one bad result. That's the position that Cup Series regular season champion Martin Truex Jr. finds himself in ahead of tonight's Bass Pro Shops Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway (6:30 pm ET, USA).

After finishing on top of the regular season standings, Truex entered the Round of 16 primed to make a run at his second Cup Series championship.

But he finished a middling 18th at the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington, then finished 36th at last week's Hollywood Casino 400 after hitting the wall on the fourth lap.

Now, Truex is on the outside looking in for the Round of 12, and the Bass Pro Shops-sponsored driver needs a great night at the Bass Pro Shops-sponsored race to keep his championship hopes alive.

NASCAR Cup Series Standings (After Two Round of 16 Races)

Larson and Reddick have advanced to the Round of 12 by virtue of wins at Darlington and Kansas, respectively.

• 1. Kyle Larson – 2117
• 2. Tyler Reddick – 2111
• 3. Denny Hamlin – 2105
• 4. William Byron – 2097
• 5. Brad Keselowski – 2089
• 6. Ryan Blaney – 2081
• 7. Kyle Busch – 2080
• 8. Ross Chastain – 2074
• 9. Chris Buescher – 2069
• 10. Christopher Bell – 2069
• 11. Joey Logano – 2068
• 12. Kevin Harvick – 2063
• 13. Martin Truex Jr. – 2056
• 14. Bubba Wallace – 2044
• 15. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – 2041
• 16. Michael McDowell – 2023

Who will be in and who will be out after tonight's race?

Bell will start on the pole for the third straight race, the first time a driver has done so in the first three playoff races, while McDowell, Truex, and Wallace will all start in the top ten.

However, as far as Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds go, it's Denny Hamlin, who will start on the front row along with Bell, who is the favorite to take the checkered flag after being denied at Kansas.

For those interested in betting on the action at Bristol, the race has been moved up an hour from its original start time of 7:30 pm ET due to the weather forecast.

Odds to Win the 2023 Bass Pro Shops Night Race

Odds are via BetUS.

• Denny Hamlin +400
• Christopher Bell +600
• Kyle Larson +600
• William Byron +650
• Brad Keselowski +800
• Chris Buescher +1200
• Chase Elliott +1200
• Martin Truex Jr. +1200
• Ty Gibbs +1800
• Ryan Blaney +2000
• Kyle Busch +2000
• Kevin Harvick +2000
• Tyler Reddick +2000
• Ross Chastain +2500
• Joey Logano +2800
• Bubba Wallace +2800

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Predictions and Picks

The format of the NASCAR playoffs also means that you can put regular season results behind you with a good night or a good stretch.

That is exactly what Tyler Reddick was able to do at Darlington and Kansas.

Entering the playoffs, Reddick had finished in the top five in just four of his last 18 races. But he finished second to Larson at Darlington then used all of the track to make a late pass for the lead at Kansas to take the win, his second of the season.

The co-owner of Reddick's #45, Hamlin, can also look ahead to the Round of 12 despite some wild misfortune in the first two playoff races.

At Darlington, he won the first two stages but finished 25th, and last week, he was on his way to the win until Chris Buescher hit the wall with six laps remaining and was undone by a poor restart.

Hamlin (2012, 2019) is one of four drivers in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race field with multiple wins in this race, along with three-time winner Kyle Busch (2009, 2010, 2017) and two-time winners Kevin Harvick (2016, 2020) and Joey Logano (2014, 2015).

While Hamlin is virtually certain of a spot in the Round of 12 and Busch is in a strong spot after finishing 11th and seventh in the first two races, Harvick and Logano could be facing a nervous night.

Harvick will start 21st, but he has finished tenth, second, and first in the last three editions of this race. Finishing in the top ten may or may not be enough to secure his spot in the Round of 12, but at +100 (at BetUS) to do so is outstanding value.

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Starting Lineup (Front Eight Rows)

1. Christopher Bell
2. Denny Hamlin
3. William Byron
4. Michael McDowell
5. Martin Truex Jr.
6. Brad Keselowski
7. Chase Elliott
8. Ty Gibbs
9. Bubba Wallace
10. Corey LaJoie
11. Ryan Blaney
12. Tyler Reddick
13. Alex Bowman
14. Chase Briscoe
15. Kyle Busch
16. Carson Hocevar

There is a lot of value on the board with finishing position odds, but there are four picks that stick out especially for me.

After finishing seventh at Darlington, Bubba Wallace was running second at Kansas before a tire blew, sending him into the wall and ruining his hopes of a Hollywood Casino 400 repeat.

But there's a lot to like about what the 23XI Racing cars have done thus far in the playoffs, and I'm locking in both Wallace (+140 at BetUS) and Reddick (+100) for Bass Pro Shops Night Race top tens.

William Byron finished third in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race in both 2021 and 2022, and he is +115 at Bovada to head into the Round of 12 with two top-five finishes in the Round of 16.

Also, while Kyle Busch doesn't need a high finish to advance, I'm backing him for one.

Busch, who will start 15th, isn't getting a lot of love at the moment compared to the top contenders, but he has finished seventh, 11th, and seventh in his last three races, and his success at Bristol is not to be overlooked. At BetUS, he is +100 for a top-ten finish, and I'm locking that in with no hesitation.

Recent Bass Pro Shops Night Race Winners

• 2022: Chris Buescher
• 2021: Kyle Larson
• 2020: Kevin Harvick
• 2019: Denny Hamlin
• 2018: Kurt Busch
• 2017: Kyle Busch
• 2016: Kevin Harvick
• 2015: Joey Logano
• 2014: Joey Logano
• 2013: Matt Kenseth

And now–drumroll, please–for this week's winner pick.

I'll keep it simple here and say that it would be rather fitting for the Bass Pro Shops-sponsored driver to win the Bass Pro Shops-sponsored race and capture his first win at Bristol when he is at Desperation Station.

I love a good storyline, and the odds for him to win, win his group (+225 at BetUS to win Group C, which consists of him, Harvick, Logano, and Ross Chastain), and to be the top Toyota (+250 at Bovada) are all pretty darn good, too.

Where to Bet on the NASCAR Cup Series

Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Throughout the season, you can bet on races like the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, and others.

Along with being able to bet on the winner of each Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and/or Truck Series race, sportsbooks like Bovada and BetUS offer finishing position odds (top 3, top 5, and/or top 10).

Also, odds on who will finish at the top of the championship standings are available at many reputable sportsbooks.

In addition to BetUS and Bovada, where Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds used in this article are from, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in NASCAR betting:

• BetOnline
• Bookmaker
• MyBookie
• Sportsbetting.ag

If you don't have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.