Yankees vs. Guardians (July 2): Can Cortes get back on track in Cleveland?

The second game of the Saturday doubleheader between the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians will feature a matchup of two pitchers who could use a win to start July.

Nestor Cortes has had an ERA under 2.00 for much of the season, but it has moved above 2.00 and now 2.50 thanks to his last two starts.

Those are problems that Aaron Civale would love to have, as he is still trying to find his way in a season that has been affected by injury and ineffectiveness.

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: New York Yankees (56-21, 22-12 away, 1st in the AL East) vs. Cleveland Guardians (39-34, 19-15 home, 2nd in the AL Central)
• Venue & Location: Progressive Field (Cleveland, Ohio)
• Date: Saturday, July 2, 2022
• Game Time: 6:10 p.m. Eastern Time
• TV Broadcast/Streaming Info: YES Network (Yankees), Bally Sports Great Lakes (Guardians), MLB Extra Innings/MLB.TV (subscription packages)

Yankees vs. Guardians Pitching Matchup

• New York Yankees: Nestor Cortes (2022: 14 starts, 6-3, 2.51 ERA)
• Cleveland Guardians: Aaron Civale (2022: 9 starts, 2-4, 7.20 ERA)

Yankees vs. Guardians Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. This article may also include odds from our other top sportsbooks we have reviewed and recommend.

Moneyline

• New York Yankees -176
• Cleveland Guardians +148

Over/Under

• OVER 8.5 (-110)
• UNDER 8.5 (-110)

Run Line

• New York Yankees -1.5 (-113)
• Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (-106)

Better Results and Run Support Needed for Cortes

Even the best pitchers have a bad outing every now and then, so there's nothing to read into Cortes's recent results, especially considering that they aren't actually horrible. They are merely a step down from the results he had been churning out earlier in the season.

The 27-year-old southpaw did not allow three runs in an outing until his eighth start of the season, and he has yet to give up more than four runs in any start. But in his last seven starts, he has allowed three or more runs four times, and in that time, his ERA has gone from 1.35 to 2.51.

In his last four starts alone, Cortes has allowed more runs (12) than he did in his first 10 starts (11). He has lasted only 4.1 innings in each of his last two road starts, giving up four runs and seven hits in a loss to the Minnesota Twins on June 8 and four runs and seven hits in a loss to the Tampa Bay Rays on June 21.

The biggest concern is the fact that he gave up three homers against the Twins and two against the Rays when he has given up five homers total in his other 12 starts and hasn't given up multiple homers in any other outing. In his first five road starts in 2022, he was taken deep only twice.

Run support has dropped off a bit as well, lessening his margin for error. In each game of a four-start stretch from mid-May to early June, the Yankees scored five or more runs. But they have hit that number in only one of his last four starts, the 6-3 walk-off win over the Houston Astros last Sunday, in which they scored all six runs in the late innings.

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Prediction and Best Bets

Yankees vs. Guardians Prediction: Guardians to win

Yankees vs. Guardians Best Bets: Guardians ML (+150 at Bovada Sportsbook & MyBookie) & Guardians team total over 3.5 runs (-102 at BetOnline)

I'm not counting on Civale, who has allowed fewer than three runs only twice so far this season, to shut down the Yankees this evening.

But I do think he can hold them in check enough for Cleveland to have a chance, and with Cortes having a bit of a drop-off recently, there is a lot of value in backing the home team here.

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