Twins vs. White Sox Best Bet | September 3, 2025
Written by: Danny Burke
Last Update: Wed Sep 03, 2025, 4:00 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Twins vs. White Sox: Are the Minnesota Twins really on the verge of dropping three straight to the Chicago White Sox? After what's unfolded the last two nights, it's on the table. Chicago opened the series with a 6-5 win on Monday, then piled on with a 12-3 rout Tuesday. It's a four-game set, so the White Sox can't lock in a sweep just yet, but the Twins staring at three consecutive losses to a division rival should add some urgency. So where does that leave us from a betting perspective? Let me tell you with my Twins vs. White Sox best bet.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Twins vs. White Sox Best Bet – September 3
Can the Twins pick things up tonight against the White Sox?
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Tonight's forecast at Target Field calls for cooler conditions — temperatures around 60 degrees with the wind blowing out at 14 mph to right-center field.
The pitching matchup features a pair of right-handers: Zebby Matthews for the Twins and Yoendrys Gomez for the White Sox.
Zealous on Zebby:
I'm always looking to back pitchers whose underlying metrics point toward positive regression – especially when they're facing a weaker offense. That's the case with Matthews tonight. His ERA sits at 5.06, but his expected ERA is lower at 4.44. Even more telling, his FIP (3.66) and xFIP (3.42) are well below that ERA, suggesting he's due for better results.
He also owns a solid 20% strikeout-to-walk ratio and has performed better at home. With only 12 starts under his belt, some of these numbers may normalize over a larger sample, and this matchup sets up as a good spot for him to take a step forward.
Despite the White Sox bats coming alive the past two games – and tagging Matthews for four earned runs in Chicago recently – this looks like a bounce-back opportunity. Since the start of August, the White Sox rank just 19th in OPS vs. righties (.728), 18th in wRC+ (102), and 17th in ISO (.163). On a chilly night against a pitcher with upside, their offense should play to those type of numbers as opposed to what we've seen the last two games.
Gone with Gomez:
Yoendrys Gomez has appeared in 16 games, making four starts. The results haven't been encouraging: a 5.20 ERA, 5.81 expected ERA, 5.31 FIP, and 5.59 xFIP. Not only are his surface numbers poor, but the advanced stats suggest his struggles are likely to continue.
He's also issuing nearly six walks per nine innings, allowing a 13% barrel rate, and posting just a 6.5% strikeout-to-walk ratio (league average: 13.5%). Even in his four most recent outings – all starts – his xFIP has averaged 4.97 despite allowing only eight earned runs, a sign that regression is looming.
There's no reason the Twins shouldn't cause damage here, especially after failing to capitalize when Gomez held them to two hits in a scoreless outing last week.
Best Bet:
The Twins' moneyline has been steamed heavily, but their run line still holds value. Minnesota's offense should break through early, and as long as Matthew's can stay afloat then the Twins should be able to cash a plus-money run line.
Best Bet: Twins Run Line -1.5 (+120) odds via BetOnline
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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