Kicking off the day with a prop that I believe is mispriced, and I am an absolute sucker for a mispriced prop. Hit props are always on my radar—why chase plus money for two bases or two hits when the price for the floor (a single hit) is reasonable? For me, any hit prop priced under $1.80 is worth a look, pending the hitter.
Today, we are all over Tigers outfielder Riley Greene, who is $1.65 to record a hit. Greene has been locked in over his last three games, tallying 11 total bases in his last 13 at-bats. Before that, he had only three total bases in his previous 26 at-bats, so this looks like him finding his groove again.
The 24-year-old carries an elite rating on Batters-Box's current season ratings. In 39 elite ratings this year, he has recorded a hit 61.54% of the time. In his last ten elite ratings, he has logged at least one hit in eight of them.
Greene vs. Smith
Greene faces White Sox starter Shane Smith, who has struggled against left-handed hitters. In his last 60 faced, left-handers own a .475 xBA, 1.032 xSLG, and .407 xwOBA. Smith is also allowing 55.9% hard contact and 4.05 HR/9.
Only 37% of Smith's arsenal grades below league average. The remaining 63%—his fastball and changeup—are pitches that Greene handles well, posting an OPS of .717 or greater and a wRC+ of 111 or greater against both.
I am asking for the floor in this spot, and paying that price is not egregious. The numbers are strong, and even with how hot Greene has been over the last three games, I still believe this is the best look in this matchup against Smith. Pay the juice.
