Phillies vs. Astros (Oct. 3): Will Philadelphia clinch a postseason berth tonigth in Houston?

Eddie Griffin

Friday night, the Seattle Mariners ended what was the longest current MLB playoff drought in dramatic fashion against the Oakland A’s. Tonight, the Philadelphia Phillies can end their own long postseason dry spell with a win over the Houston Astros.

It’s quite the tough assignment to have to navigate to wrap up the remaining unaccounted-for spot in the playoffs. But thanks to winning three of four against the Washington Nationals and the Miami Marlins somehow taking three of four from the Milwaukee Brewers, the Phils will ensure extra baseball with one win at Minute Maid Park.

National League Playoff Seeds and Standings

Division Leaders/Winners

  • 1. Los Angeles Dodgers – 110-49
  • 2. Atlanta Braves – 100-59
  • 3. St. Louis Cardinals – 92-67

Wild Card

  • 4. New York Mets – 98-61
  • 5. San Diego Padres – 87-72
  • 6. Philadelphia Phillies – 86-73

On the Outside

  • 7. Milwaukee Brewers – 84-73

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (86-73, 39-39 away, 3rd in the NL East) vs. Houston Astros (104-55, 53-25 home, 1st in the AL West)
  • Venue & Location: Minute Maid Park (Houston, Texas)
  • Date: Monday, October 3, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:10 p.m. Eastern Time (7:10 p.m. local time)

Phillies vs. Astros Pitching Matchup

  • Philadelphia: RHP Aaron Nola (2022: 31 starts, 10-13, 3.36 ERA)
  • Houston: RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (2022: 7 starts, 4-1, 2.38 ERA)

Phillies vs. Astros Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

  • Philadelphia Phillies +110
  • Houston Astros -130

Over/Under

  • Over 7.5 (-106)
  • Under 7.5 (-114)

Run Line

  • Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-205)
  • Houston Astros -1.5 (-168)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros Prediction and Best Bets

Phillies vs. Astros Prediction: Astros to win

Phillies vs. Astros Best Bet: Astros ML (Best Value: -122 at BetRivers)

If Philadelphia is going to wrap up things up without having to pay any attention to what the Brewers are doing against the Arizona Diamondbacks, they will need Aaron Nola to break out of his recent road rut.

His road record has been pretty rough all season, but he has a lower ERA on the road than at home. But in his last three road starts, he is 0-3 and has allowed 16 runs (all earned) and 22 hits in 16 innings.

While the Phillies had a winning trip to D.C., they have thrived against below .500 competition this season, going 52-28 (.650) against teams below .500. But they are only 33-45 (.423) against teams at or above .500.

Offensive numbers are also not overly favorable for this particular matchup, either.

Batting Splits for the Philadelphia Phillies

vs. LHP and RHP

  • Batting average vs. LHP: .264
  • BA vs. RHP: .250
  • Runs per games in games started by LHP: 4.91
  • Runs per game in games started by RHP: 4.54

Home and Away

  • Batting average at home: .260
  • BA on the road: .248
  • Runs per game at home: 4.89
  • Runs per game on the road: 4.39

Above/At/Below .500

  • Batting average vs. teams at or above .500: .240
  • BA vs. teams below .500: .267
  • Runs per game vs. teams at or above .500: 5.18
  • Runs per game vs. teams below .500: 4.10

Houston doesn’t have anything to play for at this point as they have already clinched the top seed in the American League and can’t catch the Dodgers for MLB’s best record.

But they are 15-5 in their last 20 games and just took two of three against the Tampa Bay Rays at home, and they are 25-11 at home since the All-Star break.

McCullers’ season only started in mid-August, but he is hitting his stride as the playoffs approach, which is a dangerous prospect for the Astros’ upcoming opponents.

He missed his last scheduled start last Tuesday against the Diamondbacks due to illness, but in his most recent start, he allowed two runs, six hits, and two walks and struck out eight in seven innings in a road win over the Rays on September 21.

The Phillies may need this game much more than the Astros possibly could, but they won’t get it. This isn’t a great matchup for Philadelphia, nor is tomorrow night’s matchup with Justin Verlander.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.