Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Props July 5th, 2026
Written by: TonesTakes
Last Update: Sun Jul 05, 2026, 9:31 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
120
10
-113u
-134
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-130
10
-105o
+122
Jackson Chourio didn't start last night so his bet was void so we ended up going 1-1 for +.15 Units. That brings the YTD total to 10-3 for +8.56 Units. Today we'll look at my Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Analysis
Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Picks and Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies continue their 3 game series today against the Kansas City Royals, at Kauffman Stadium. The Phils took Game 1 last night behind a stellar pitching performance by Jesus Luzardo. The Lefty tossed 6 innings, allowed 1 earned run on 4 hits and struck out 9. We could see the total opposite with today's starter Aaron Nola. How will this matchup play-0ut? Let's take a look….
Phillies vs Royals Pitching Matchup
- Philadelphia Phillies (50-39) RHP Aaron Nola (3-5, 6.04 ERA/1.49 WHIP)
- Kansas City Royals (35-54) RHP Luinder Avila (3-3, 5.40 ERA/1.67 WHIP)
Phillies vs Royals Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel
Moneyline
- Philadelphia Phillies -144
- Kansas City Royals +132
Total
- Over 9.5 (-118)
- Under 9.5 (-102)
Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Game Predictions and Best Bets
Game Pick: Over 9.5 -118 Lucky Rebel
Game Pick: Kansas City Royals Team Total Over 4.5 +108 Lucky Rebel
Happy Nola day and I like to call it. Nola's meatballs are on tap for an early Sunday dinner, starting at 3PM. The One time Ace of this pitching staff has fallen on hard times dating back to last season. He is typically good for 4-5 innings, which always includes at least 1 blow up inning. On. the road, Aaron has an ERA of 5.40 and a WHIP of 1.33. While the Royals have struggled to hit overall this season, they hit much better at home, thanks to the new dimensions of Kauffman stadium. Against right handed pitching at home this season they average 5.1 runs/9 innings, they are hitting .264 (6th), they have an OPS of .766 (10th) and a wRC+ of 107 (15th). Anytime I can get an opposing Team Total at plus money, on Nola day, I'll bite.
The Phils should do their part in getting this game to 10 runs. Their offense has heated up lately as they are averaging 5.6 runs/9 over their last 10 games. Kansas City starter Luinder Avila has gotten hit up at home this season where he sports and ERA of 12.79 along with a WHIP of 2.76. Behind him is a bullpen that has an ERA of 5.34, which is the worst in the majors. I am expecting some post July 4th fireworks today, in Kansas City.
Player Prop: Bobby Witt Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs +122 Lucky Rebel
Bobby Witt is Kansas City's best hitter. The Kansas City slugger was named as the starting shortstop for the American League All Star team and has a nice matchup here. He is 3/6 vs Aaron Nola in his career, with a triple and a Home Run. He is hitting .300 at home with 21 extra base hits, in 43 games. Witt has a Barrel rate of 12.6, which is in the 80th percentile among MLB hitters. That matches up nicely with Nola's 10.0 Barrel rate, which is on the 20th percentile among MLB pitchers. After a quiet game last night, I expect Witt to do some damage today.
Player Prop: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 Total Bases +114 Lucky Rebel
Bryce Harper was also named to the All Star team and he has heated up lately. Bryce has hits in 12 of his last 14 games, clearing this mark in 9 of those games. He was questioned by his General Manger in the offseason as to weather he can be "Elite" again and he has responded with a solid season thus far as he is hitting .274 with 20 Home Runs. He is hitting .299 vs RHPs with an ISO of .340. I like Bryce to get to 2 bases, at minimum, today.
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