Padres vs. Marlins (August 15): Will NL Cy Young favorite Alcantara shut down San Diego?

Eddie Griffin

The San Diego Padres are back on track after a five-game losing streak, and they will look to keep their winning ways going tonight as they open a three-game series against the Miami Marlins.

Last week was marred somewhat by the news of an 80-game suspension for star slugger Fernando Tatis Jr., but on the field, the Padres won their series against the San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals.

In tonight’s opener, Joe Musgrove will look to pick up his first win in two months as San Diego’s bats will be up against a stiff challenge in NL Cy Young Award favorite Sandy Alcantara.

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: San Diego Padres (65-52, 32-28 away, 2nd in the NL West) vs. Miami Marlins (50-65, 23-32 home, 4th in the NL East)
  • Venue & Location: LoanDepot Park (Miami, Florida)
  • Date: Monday, August 15, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 p.m. Eastern Time

Padres vs. Marlins Pitching Matchup

  • San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (2022: 20 starts, 8-5, 2.91 ERA)
  • Miami Marlins: Sandy Alcantara (2022: 23 starts, 10-5, 2.01 ERA)

Padres vs. Marlins Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. This article may also include odds from other top legal sports betting sites that we recommend and have reviewed.

Moneyline

  • San Diego Padres -142
  • Miami Marlins +120

Over/Under

  • Over 6.5 (-115)
  • Under 6.5 (-105)

Run Line

  • San Diego Padres -1.5 (+130)
  • Miami Marlins +1.5 (-156)

Can Miami’s Bats Muster Enough Offense to Aid Alcantara?

Last Wednesday against the Philadelphia Phillies, Alcantara was six outs away from consecutive complete-game wins. But a 3-1 lead evaporated in the bottom of the eighth as the Phillies scored three runs on five hits in that frame and then closed out a 4-3 win.

But even though the night didn’t end well for Alcantara and the Marlins, he remains a heavy favorite in the NL Cy Young race. At FanDuel, he enters today as a -250 favorite, well ahead of Corbin Burnes and Max Fried, both of whom sit at +1900.

Alcantara has now gone at least seven innings in 16 of 23 starts this season, and he is likely to go deep again tonight. The Marlins have a bullpen ERA of 3.95 and blew a ninth-inning lead against the Atlanta Braves yesterday, so letting Alcantara stay in the game and try to pitch through it is the best option, even if it didn’t work out last time.

But can the bats generate enough offense to back him up? Miami has scored three or fewer runs 12 times in Alcantara’s 23 starts this season, including five times in his last seven starts.

Musgrove has allowed four or more runs four times in his last seven starts, but he allowed just one run and six hits in seven innings last time out against the Giants last Tuesday.

But he was robbed of the win by the bullpen in the top of the ninth before the bats walked it off in the bottom of the inning on Manny Machado’s three-run homer.

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Prediction and Picks

Padres vs. Marlins Prediction: Marlins to win

Padres vs. Marlins Picks: Marlins ML (Best Value: +123 at BetRivers)

Both Musgrove and Alcantara were on the wrong end of some hard luck the last time they took the mound, and one of the two is likely to have some hard luck again tonight.

The best value is on that being Musgrove, with Alcantara and the Marlins sitting at a very attractive price as an underdog at home.

More Padres vs. Marlins Content

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.