Padres vs. Giants (August 31): Will Musgrove’s winless run extend into September?

Eddie Griffin

It has been an up and down month for the San Diego Padres, but it will end with back-to-back series wins over the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants.

And it will end on a higher note if they can wrap up a sweep of the rival Giants this afternoon at Oracle Park and if Joe Musgrove can pick up his first win in two and a half months.

With four wins in their last five games, the Padres have significantly helped their hopes for an NL wild-card spot.

Entering the series finale in San Francisco, they are 2.5 games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers for the final NL wild-card spot and just a half-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the second spot.

A win would further aid their pursuit of a place in the postseason, and it would no doubt be all the better if it can come with Musgrove finally getting off of eight wins, where he has been since June 16.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
  • Venue & Location: Oracle Park (San Francisco, California)
  • Date: Wednesday, August 31, 2022
  • Game Time: 3:45 p.m. Eastern Time (12:45 p.m. local time)

Padres vs. Giants Pitching Matchup

  • San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (2022: 23 starts, 8-6, 2.96 ERA)
  • San Francisco Giants: Alex Wood (2022: 25 starts, 8-11, 5.00 ERA)

Padres vs. Giants Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. Odds from other legal sportsbooks may also be included in this article.

Moneyline

  • San Diego Padres -146
  • San Francisco Giants +124

Over/Under

  • Over 7.5 (-118)
  • Under 7.5 (-104)

Run Line

  • San Diego Padres -1.5 (+116)
  • San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-140)

Will Musgrove Finally Get That Winning Feeling Again?

While Musgrove has not been credited with a win since getting the best of the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, things haven’t been all bad.

In the 11 starts since, he has six quality starts, three of which have come in his five August starts. And while he remains stuck on eight wins, the Padres have won three of the last four games that he has started.

So, you have to feel like it is just a matter of time before his winless run ends. And today’s matchup represents as good of a chance as he could possibly get, for three reasons.

First, Musgrove has been outstanding against the Giants this season. In three starts against San Francisco, he has allowed just one run and just 11 hits, and he has pitched seven innings in each start. The Padres have won all three games, two at Petco Park and one at Oracle Park.

Joe Musgrove vs. San Francisco This Season

  • May 21 (away): 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 K (W)
  • July 7 (home): 7 IP, H, 0 R, 4 BB, 6 K (no-decision)
  • August 9 (home): 7 IP, 6 H, R, 0 BB, 4 K (no-decision)

Second, the Giants are awful right now. They have lost six straight and 10 of their last 12 games. In that stretch, they have scored three or fewer runs nine times.

Third, Alex Wood has followed his best month of the season with his worst month of the season.

In July, Wood went 2-1 with a 1.65 ERA in five starts. In August, he is 1-3 with an 8.53 ERA in five starts.

July and August Splits for Alex Wood

  • July (five starts): 2-1, 1.65 ERA, 27.1 IP, 17 H, 8 R (5 ER), 3 HR, 5 BB, 28 K, .173 OBA
  • August (five starts): 1-3, 8.53 ERA, 25.1 IP, 30 H, 24 R (24 ER), 6 HR, 4 BB, 27 K, .291 OBA

In his last two starts, which came against the Rockies and Twins, he gave up 15 runs and 13 hits, including five homers, in just 7.2 innings.

It is worth noting, however, that Wood’s best outing this month and his best outing last month were both against the Padres in San Diego.

On July 10, he allowed just three hits and one walk and struck out eight in seven shutout innings in a 12-0 win. Then on August 8, he allowed three hits and no walks and struck out five in 6.1 shutout innings to earn the win in a 1-0 Giants victory.

Can he channel those performances today to deliver a win for the home team?

Just making marked improvement upon his last two starts would be a welcome sight, but even a quality start might not be enough with how poorly things are going at the plate for San Francisco.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction and Best Bets

Padres vs. Giants Prediction: Padres to win

Padres vs. Giants Best Bets: Padres ML (Best Value: -136 at BetRivers)

Given how Wood has performed recently and his underwhelming body of work this season, along with how the Giants have performed recently–especially at the plate–and their underwhelming body of work this season, this is a pretty generous number even with Wood’s last two starts against the Padres in mind.

Sure, Musgrove hasn’t picked up a win since it was still spring, and his last start wasn’t great (3.2 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 2 ER at Kansas City last Friday).

But things are looking up overall this month, he has owned the Giants thus far this season, and the Padres are heating up as a team.

If it doesn’t happen for Musgrove today, when will it? Things line up pretty favorably for him here, and they also line up favorably if you are backing the Padres.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.