NLDS Game 1’s: Prediction & Best Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Fri Oct 06, 2023, 5:37 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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The National League Divisional Series is here and we have some great matchups tomorrow evening!
Let's get right into our NLDS Game 1 Best Bets and predictions!
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Pitching Matchup
Pitchers were not listed at the time of writing, but here are the projected starters.
- Philadelphia Phillies: Ranger Suarez
- Atlanta Braves: Spencer Strider
Game Information
- Venue & Location: Truist Park (Atlanta, GA)
- Date: Saturday, October 7th, 2023
- First Pitch: 6:07pm Eastern
- Broadcast: TBS
Bettings Odds
Runline
- Phillies +1.5 (-120)
- Braves -1.5 (+100)
MoneyLine
- Phillies +170
- Braves -210
Total
- Over 8.5 (-110)
- Under 8.5 (-110)
MLB Top Picks: Phillies vs Braves
The Pick: PHI/ATL Over 8.5 (-110) Bovada
Assuming we see Spencer Strider and Ranger Suarez, I think we see some offense. Strider gave up at least one earned run in each start to the Phillies this year, and gave up 2 and 3 in his two home starts against them.
Suarez only saw the Braves once, giving up 1 ER at home. But we know what this Braves offense can do, especially in the playoffs.
These teams played 13 times this year, with 8 of those 13 clearing the over, seeing double digit runs, and one ending at 8 runs.
The Phillies produced plenty of offense against the Marlins, scoring 11 runs in 2 games. I think the have no problem keeping it going in Atlanta.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pitching Matchup
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw
Game Information
- Venue & Location: Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles, CA)
- Date: Saturday, October 7th, 2023
- First Pitch: 9:20pm Eastern
- Broadcast: TBS
Bettings Odds
Runline
- Diamondbacks +1.5 (-125)
- Dodgers -1.5 (+105)
MoneyLine
- Diamondbacks +170
- Dodgers -210
Total
- Over 8 (-110)
- Under 8 (-110)
MLB Top Picks: Diamondbacks vs Dodgers
The Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+105) Bovada
The Dodgers took 8 of 13 from Arizona in the season series, covering the RL in 7 of those 8 wins. They also won the last 5 against the Diamondbacks, covering in their last 4.
I think the Dodgers continue their domination of a tired Diamondbacks team, who, although they looked solid against Milwaukee, will be forced to start Gallen on the road if they lose tonight.
A well rested Dodgers team at home is a nightmare for this young Arizona roster. I think ultimately the playoff experience lifts the Dodgers over the Diamondbacks at home, and I've got no problem betting on them to do so by 2 runs.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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