New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Preview (July 1): After the Braves Scored 20 Last Night, Scoring Two Against deGrom Would Be More Impressive
A few days ago I was looking at the Mets statistical profile and they had the league’s best ERA but were last in scoring. I am not sure any team has finished a season like that, and it was even more interesting that they had that profile and were in first place in the NL East. They are still in first place and heavy MLB betting favorites to win the NL East, but the red hot Nationals are gaining on them.
Last night the Braves scored 20 runs against the Mets, putting a major dent in that league-leading ERA. In fact, they are now 4th, but that is still the strength of the club. However, they might struggle for a stretch now with Marcus Stroman on the bereavement list and some other arms hurting. They have to pitch if they are going to stay on track in the division.
A 20-run outburst is always impressive but Atlanta is still under .500 and in third place in the NL East. They have split the games in this series so far and need a win to start gaining ground in the division standings. The lineup looks just as good as it did a year ago, most nights, but the pitching less so. A trade could be beneficial for the Braves.
Atlanta could also use some reinforcements in the bullpen. A.J. Minter is second in the Majors in blown saves this season, which is especially interesting because he is not even their closer. When they have been able to get leads, it has been hard to lock them down.
New York Mets (41-35) vs Atlanta Braves (38-41), Bally Sports South, 7:20 PM ET
- New York Mets: Jacob deGrom (7-2, 0.69 ERA)
- Atlanta Braves: Ian Anderson (5-4, 3.42 ERA)
Mets vs Braves Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Mets -155, Braves +143
- Total: OVER 7 (-112), UNDER 7 (-108)
- Run Line: Mets -1.5 (+122), Braves +1.5 (-134)
Mets vs Braves Betting Consensus
- Moneyline: Mets 100%, Braves 0%
- Total: Over 60%, Under 40%
- Run Line: Mets 20%, Braves 80%
Ace Covers a Lot for the Mets
Jacob deGrom gave up a couple of runs in his last start, showing some version of humanity. That does not take away from the fact that the Mets are nearly invincible when he starts, as they have won his last eight starts. He often contributes at the plate too where the Mets need him just as much on some nights.
The Mets were hoping for a bump in scoring with OF Michael Conforto back from injury. He has been back a week, and the results have not been good. He has just three hits and one RBI. His presence has not done much either as the team has scored more than four runs just once with him in the lineup. New York is desperate for offense from somewhere.
Red Hot Bats Face Ultimate Equalizer Tonight
While the Mets are hunting for offense, the Braves are pretty set there. OF Marcell Ozuna is likely not coming back, but with 2B Ozzie Albies and 3B Austin Riley proving to be very comfortable in the middle of the order, Atlanta should have no trouble scoring runs.
Ian Anderson was unhittable last season, his first tour through the league. This year he has been solid but nowhere near elite. There have been too many games where he is just not giving that offense a chance to win the game. Also, if he wants to be the ace of the staff he needs to work deeper into games, though they might be babying him too much given how quickly Mike Soroka went from ace to injured. Anderson has faced the Mets twice this season, both on the road. In one game they rocked him for a couple of homers, and in the other he shut them out for five innings. That is his season in a nutshell.
Jacob deGrom Home vs. Away
- Home: 4-2, 1.02 ERA, 53 IP, 82 Ks, 7 BBs
- Away: 3-0, 0.00 ERA, 25 IP, 40 Ks, 4 BBs
Ian Anderson Home vs. Away
- Home: 2-1, 4.30 ERA, 37.2 IP, 44 Ks, 13 BBs
- Away: 3-3, 2.66, ERA, 44 IP, 44 Ks, 16 BBs
Anderson has a bright future but deGrom is the best pitcher in the league. His stats get flaunted every time he pitches which is why I was surprised to learn that he has yet to give up an earned run on the road this season. Atlanta should be a test, but he faced them on June 21 and gave up 1 hit in five innings at Citi Field. Given those splits, there is no reason to think he can’t do it again on the road.
Mets vs Braves Best Bet: New York Mets -1.5. Finding the right spot to fade an ace like deGrom is how you make money with MLB betting. It is super hard to make a case when you look at his splits and how well the team has done in his starts though. The Mets were 0-2 in his first two starts of the season but is 10-1 since. The offense is the only reason to hesitate, but I just don’t like backing favorites over -150 which is why the run line is the play. You could also tack that onto a parlay.
July 1 MLB Betting Matchups – National League
MLB Betting Matchup: Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies, NBC Sports Philadelphia, 6:05 PM – POSTPONED
- Miami Marlins: Pablo Lopez (4-4, 2.87 ERA)
- Philadelphia Phillies: Zach Eflin (2-6, 4.20 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals, MASN 2, 7:05 PM ET
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Victor Gonzalez (3-0, 2.10 ERA)
- Washington Nationals: Patrick Corbin (5-6, 5.33 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates, ATT Sportsnet Pittsburgh, 7:05 PM
- Milwaukee Brewers: Corbin Burnes (3-4, 2.53 ERA)
- Pittsburgh Pirates: Will Crowe (1-4, 6.50 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds, Ball Sports Ohio, 7:10 PM ET
- San Diego Padres: Ryan Weathers (3-2, 2.47 ERA)
- Cincinnati Reds: Luis Castillo (3-10, 5.14 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies, ATT Sportsnet Rocky Mountain, 8:40 PM ET
- St. Louis Cardinals: Adam Wainwright (6-5, 3.59 ERA)
- Colorado Rockies: Antonio Senzatela (2-7, 4.76 ERA)
MLB Betting Matchup: San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, ESPN, 9:40 PM ET
- San Francisco Giants: Johnny Cueto (6-3, 3.63 ERA)
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Merril Kelly (4-7, 4.73 ERA)
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