(6/17) MLB | The Daily Dinger Report — Wednesday Dingers
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Wed Jun 17, 2026, 3:18 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
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+1.5
-180
9.5
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+113
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Alright, Dinger Tuesday did not go as planned. Nathaniel Lowe was subbed out after just two plate appearances and Bobby Witt Jr. had three hits; all singles.
It's hump day and we've got a huge slate of games to go through. Weather looks great in a few parks and I'm locked in on two hitters.
Let's jump straight into tonight.
The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions.
Dinger Cheat Sheet
- BA — Batting Average
- oBA — Opponent Batting Average
- xBA — Expected BA
- SLG — Slugging Percentage
- ISO — Isolated Power
- wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
- HH% — Hard Hit Rate
- BRL% — Barrel Rate
- HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
- XBH — Extra Base Hit
- RBI — Runs Batted In
Dinger Counter: 5-11; +4.2 units
Today's Dingers
Wilyer Abreu Home Run (+350) | Lucky Rebel
Let's start the night at Fenway Park, where the Boston Red Sox will host the Toronto Blue Jays tonight for Game 2 of their 3-game series. The Blue Jays walked away with a dominant 6-1 win in the series opener yesterday, hitting 3 home runs in the process.
Tonight Toronto will send out Max Scherzer for his 7th start of the season and at 41-years old; he's not having a good time.
Scherzer's got a 10.23 ERA, he's allowing opposing batters to hit .300 and he's allowing 3.7 HR/9. It's been an ugly year for Mad Max and tonight at Fenway, I don't see it getting any better.
Scherzer's allowed 11 hits over his last two games, 5 of which have left the ballpark. He's given up 9 home runs in just 22 innings of work and he's gone more than 3 innings just twice in his six starts.
Six of the 9 home runs he's given up have come against lefties and Scherzer's allowing lefties to hit .322 with a .661 SLG and .339 ISO.
Abreu hasn't been the Red Sox' best hitter, but he is hitting .278 on the year with a 8 home runs and a 42.3% HH. Seven of his 8 home runs have come against right handed pitchers and Scherzer's allowing a 67% flyball rate this year.
Scherzer also relies heavily on a combo of his 4-Seamer/Slider/Curve/Cutter — all pitches Abreu hits for power.
Brandon Lowe Home Run (+280) | Lucky Rebel
This one's a little more chalky, but when winds are blowing out of Sutter Health Park at nearly 15 mph; I'm okay with a little chalk.
Brandon Lowe has 18 home runs this year, 10 of which have come on the road. Lowe's batting average jumps to .269 when playing outside of Pittsburgh and his SLG jumps from .441 (at PNC) to .597 on the road.
In his first year outside of Tampa Bay, Lowe's been fantastic. He's got a .511 SLG this year, he leads the team in home runs, RBI and sits third in runs scored. The guy's been great and tonight he gets one more game in a Triple-A ballpark.
Lowe's gone 2/10 so far in this series but did manage to hit a home run last night. He's batting .267 against righties this year with a .588 SLG and 47.1% HH. Lowe's BRL jumps to nearly 17% against righties and 14 of his 18 home runs have come against right handed pitchers.
On the bump for the Athletics is Aaron Civale. Civale's got a 5.47 ERA here at home, where he's allowing opponents to hit .345 and giving up 2.2 HR/9. He's got a 66% flyball rate this year and that's the opposite of what you want in a ballpark like this one.
Winds are blowing out, Civale's giving up a ton of hard contact and he's been even worse against lefties. He's allowing southpaw's to hit .305 on the year with a .542 SLG and 8 home runs allowed.
Brandon Lowe tonight, I'm not overthinking it.
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