(6/18) MLB | The Daily Dinger Report — Thursday Dingers
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Thu Jun 18, 2026, 4:56 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
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Moneyline
+1.5
-140
10.0
-110o
+143
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-1.5
120
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-158
Happy Friday Junior. We're almost there, it's almost the weekend. We've got a small slate of games in the MLB today but I've got my eyes set on two hitters; both in incredible hitting conditions.
Let's jump straight into it.
The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions.
Dinger Cheat Sheet
- BA — Batting Average
- oBA — Opponent Batting Average
- xBA — Expected BA
- SLG — Slugging Percentage
- ISO — Isolated Power
- wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
- HH% — Hard Hit Rate
- BRL% — Barrel Rate
- HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
- XBH — Extra Base Hit
- RBI — Runs Batted In
Dinger Counter: 5-13; +2.2 units
Today's Dingers
Bryce Harper Home Run (+425) | Lucky Rebel
Bryce Harper has been incredibly bad against left handed pitching this year, but this price feels crazy to me. Harper's hitting just .206 against left handed pitchers this year and just 3 of his 15 home runs have come against lefties.
This isn't normal for Harper. Last year Harper hit 27 home runs, 10 against lefties with a .273 BA and .478 SLG. In the year prior, 9 of his 30 home runs came against lefties and he finished the year batting .301 with a .520 SLG against southpaws.
In a down year in 2021, Harper had just 21 home runs but 8 came against lefties and he finished the year with a .289 BA and .510 SLG. He's a lot better against lefties than he's shown this year and it just feels like he's due for positive regression.
On the bump for the Mets is Sean Manaea. Manaea's got a 4.78 ERA this year and he's allowing 1.7 HR/9 on the road.
Conditions today in Philly are immaculate. Winds blowing out toward center field at 16 mph, temperature is in the high 80s and Manaea's giving up a 60% fly ball rate this year.
Harper just needs to make contact and that's something he's done historically against Manaea. He's got a .368 batting average in 19 plate appearances against Manaea, hitting one home run and recording a 60% HH.
Bryce is due and tonight feels like the perfect spot to break out of this slump.
Jo Adell Home Run (+310) | Lucky Rebel
Now let's head out west, were the Athletics will host the Angels in Game 1 of this four game series at Sutter Health Park. On the bump for the Athletics will be the team's #2 prospect, Gage Jump.
The young southpaw's set to make his fifth start of the season, recording a 3.09 ERA through the first four and holding opposing batters to a batting average of just .238.
Gage has yet to give up his first big league home run, but the kid has struggled at home. In his two starts here in Sacremento, Gage has a 6.30 ERA and he's allowing batters to hit .342. He's relied heavily on his 4-seam fastball, even more so against right handed bats.
Gage is throwing that 4-seam fastball 52% of the time this year and that is exactly why I'm targeting Jo Adell.
Adell's hitting .309 against lefties this year, compared to .231 against righties. His SLG jumps from .335 against righties to .556 against southpaws. Six of his 10 home runs have come against left handed pitchers and that's with almost half as many at bats.
Against 4-seam fastballs, Adell's .301 with a 16.1% BRL and 55% HH. Specifically against lefties? Batting .435 with a 28% BRL, 71% HH and 5 home runs.
Looking for More
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(6/17) MLB | The Daily Dinger Report — Wednesday Dingers
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(6/16) MLB | The Daily Dinger Report — Dinger Tuesday
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