MLB Best Bets for Sunday, May 31: Clinging to Cleveland
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sun May 31, 2026, 11:11 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-230
7
+100o
+105
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Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-190
7
-117u
-112
Happy Sunday, folks! I hope your morning is treating you well.
Below, I've got three plays across the diamond that I believe present a strong edge. So let's go ahead and dive into today's action with my MLB best bets for Sunday, May 31.
MLB Best Bets for Sunday, May 31
Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians
We begin in Cleveland, where the Guardians and Red Sox duel in the rubber match of their three-game set.
Slated to take the mound is left-hander Ranger Suarez for Boston, while right-hander Tanner Bibee gets the nod for the home team.
Since joining the Red Sox, Suarez has made 10 starts and owns a 2-3 record, a 3.02 ERA and a 3.61 xFIP. He's been steady in just about every category, with the exceptions of a slowly increasing SIERA, which sits at 3.91, and a low strikeout-to-walk ratio of 14%.
He'll be tested today against a Cleveland lineup that's hit well against southpaws. Over the past month, the Guardians have posted a 117 wRC+, .763 OPS and a .146 ISO against lefties.
On the other side, the Red Sox's bats have remained below average. Against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days, they've produced a 93 wRC+, .701 OPS and a .137 ISO.
Bibee is coming off a horrid start against the Nationals in which he lasted just three innings, allowing seven runs on eight hits. Five of those hits happened to leave the yard. He was delivering batting practice in that game.
Nevertheless, his 4.57 season-long ERA comes with a bit of hope attached. His xFIP sits at a lower 4.14, while his .282 BABIP and 4.18 SIERA suggest he may not be pitching quite as poorly as the ERA indicates.
Bet: Guardians Moneyline (-112)
Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros
Moving on down to Texas, we have a battle between the Houston Astros and Milwaukee Brewers.
The Brew Crew had their four-game win streak snapped on Saturday after the Astros rolled to a 9-2 victory. However, there's a good chance Milwaukee gets back in the win column with stud right-hander Jacob Misiorowski taking the bump.
A 1.83 ERA, 2.02 xFIP, 45% ground ball rate and a 33% strikeout-to-walk ratio is not a bad stat line to invest in. And honestly, that's just scratching the surface of the stellar metrics he has under his belt at the moment.
The same enthusiasm can't be had for Tatsuya Imai, the 28-year-old right-hander whose ERA sits at 6.17, while his xFIP checks in at 4.95. His ground ball rate is exceptionally high as well at 52.5%, but his HR/FB rate is 21%, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio falls on the opposite end of the spectrum from Misiorowski's, sitting below 5%.
Imai's hard-hit rate is also at a dangerous 51%, while his barrel rate has climbed into double digits.
Not much more needs to be said about this meeting – let's go ahead and trust the significantly better arm and hotter team in this game.
Bet: Brewers Run Line -1.5 (-115)
New York Yankees vs Athletics
Our final wager of the Sunday Major League Baseball slate takes us to Sacramento, California, where the Yankees look to get back into the win column after their five-game win streak was snapped yesterday.
Not only did that streak come to an end, but the A's also halted their own four-game skid.
Today's outlook appears grim for the home team, with left-hander Jacob Lopez scheduled to start. His 5.73 ERA, 6.47 FIP and 1.7% K-BB ratio do just about everything except instill confidence in bettors.
To make matters worse, the Bronx Bombers lead the league in wRC+ (149) against left-handed pitching since the start of May.
So not only should we expect success from the Yankees' bats, but also from their rotation. Will Warren is starting for New York, and his 3.55 ERA, 3.27 FIP, 20% K-BB ratio and 41% ground ball rate make this betting decision much more comfortable.
There's a massive gap between these two teams in both the batter's box and on the mound, and I'm going to place a wager on the assumption that those talent disparities hold true.
Bet: New York Yankees Run Line -1.5 (-107)
MLB Bets:
- Guardians Moneyline (-112 at Lucky Rebel)
- Brewers -1.5 (-115 at Lucky Rebel)
- Yankees -1.5 (-107 at Lucky Rebel)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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