Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Props July 4th, 2026

TonesTakes

Written by: TonesTakes

Published: Sat Jul 04, 2026, 9:32 am ET

Read Time: 4 minutes

Get ready for today's Major League Baseball slate, as we have strong edges to help fill out your betting card with our MLB best bets and odds

mlb

Milwaukee Brewers logo
Today9:40 pm ET
Arizona Diamondbacks logo

Milwaukee Brewers
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

-1.5

115

9.5

-105u

-135

Arizona Diamondbacks
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

+1.5

-125

8

-105o

+133

See Picks & Statistics For The Game

We are back this week after going 4-1 last week for a profit of 3.49 Units. YTD articles plays sit at 9-2 for a profit of 8.41 Units. Today we'll look at my Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Analysis

Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks and Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers meet the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 2 of their 3 games series, at Chase field tonight. The Brew Crew took Game 1 by a 7-4 count, in 11 innings last night. The game was tied 3-3 after the 3rd inning until the Brewers scored 4 in the top of the 11th thanks to RBI hits by Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang.

Today the Brewers face a gas can in Merrill Kelly, can their bats stay hot? Let's dive in….

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Pitching Matchup

  • Milwaukee Brewers (54-32) RHP Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 2.59 ERA/0.82 WHIP)
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (43-44) RHP Merill Kelly (5-8, 5.84 ERA/1.51 WHIP)

Brewers vs Diamondbacks Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel

Moneyline 

  • Milwaukee Brewers -145
  • Arizona Diamondbacks +140

Total

  • Over 9 (-115)
  • Under 9 (-105)
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Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks Game Predictions and Best Bets

Jackson Chourio

Game Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Team Total Over 5.5 +120

I faded Merrill Kelly on Sunday and I am happy to do it again tonight. Kelly has had a terrible season as he sports an ERA of 5.84 with a WHIP of 1.51. At home, those numbers ballon to an ERA of 8.13 and a WHIP of 1.73. His metrics are even worse as he owns an xERA of 7.57 and has a barrell rate of 14%, which is in the bottom percentile of Major League Pitchers. The Brewers own one of the most powerful offenses in the Majors. When facing RHPs on the road, the Brew Crew average 5.2 runs/9. They are also 8th in Batting Average at .254, 11th in OPS at .725 and 11th in wRC+ at 102.

Behind Kelly is an Arizona pen that sports an ERA of 4.18, which is middle of the pack in the Majors. I think the Brewers offense will provide some 4th of July Fireworks tonight, which is why I am bumping the Team Total up, at a plus money price.

Player Prop: Brice Turang Over 1.5 Total Bases +115

Brice Turang enters this game as one of Milwaukee's hottest hitters. The lefty is riding a 6 game hit streak and has cleared this mark in 5 of those games, totaling 15 Total Bases. He is hitting .295 vs right handed pitching with an ISO of .225. Conversely, Kelly allows left handed hitters to hit for an average of .298, allowing 24 extra base hits. Additionally, Turang also loves facing the Diamondbacks as he has cleared this mark in 5 straight head to head meetings, including last night where he registered 3 total bases. Turang is also 4/10 lifetime vs Kelly with a Double and a Home Run. I like him to continue his hot hitting tonight, in a A+ matchup.

Player Prop: Jackson Chourio Over 2.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs +113

Let's target another Brewer bat tonight in Jackson Chourio. The righty is having a solid season as he is hitting .291 with 12 Home Runs, 34 Runs Batting In and 37 Runs Scored. He has hit this mark in 7 of his last 10 road games and is 1/3 lifetime vs Kelly with a Home Run. Jackson has a Barrell Rate of 14.2%, which is in the 88th percentile among MLB hitters. If you like Home Run bets, he is a good bet tonight. Home Run bets are not my thing so I'll go this route tonight.

 

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TonesTakes
TonesTakes

Tone is a NHL and MLB expert who regularly posts profitable seasons. A Philadelphia native, Tone enjoys watching his tickets cash while smoking cigars next to his fire pit. Feared by the sportsbooks, Tone is the ultimate bettors buddy.

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