Mets vs. Nationals (August 1): Will the NL East leaders dine on dreadful Corbin in Scherzer’s return to D.C.?
Three years ago, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin helped lead the Washington Nationals to a stunning upset of the favored Houston Astros in the World Series. Tonight, they will be on opposing sides as Corbin and the Nats host Scherzer and the New York Mets.
A lot has changed since that World Series title, to say the least.
Corbin has had a pretty spectacular fall, and Washington is headed for a third straight losing season and looks a long way off from contending anytime soon.
Scherzer, meanwhile, was traded to the Dodgers at the trade deadline last season and signed with the Mets this past offseason. The Mets lead the NL East and have one of MLB’s best records, and if not for an untimely injury in May, Scherzer would be in the mix for a fourth Cy Young Award.
Scherzer made his return to Nationals Park for his Mets debut in April and picked up the win. Will he get a repeat result in this visit?
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Matchup Information and Betting Odds
- Matchup: New York Mets (64-37, 33-20 away, 1st in the NL East) vs. Washington Nationals (35-68, 16-38 home, 5th in the NL East)
- Venue & Location: Nationals Park (Washington, D.C.)
- Date: Monday, August 1, 2022
- Game Time: 7:05 p.m. Eastern Time
Mets vs. Nationals Pitching Matchup
- New York Mets: Max Scherzer (2022: 13 starts, 6-2, 2.09 ERA)
- Washington Nationals: Patrick Corbin (2022: 21 starts, 4-14, 6.49 ERA)
Mets vs. Nationals Odds
- New York Mets -250
- Washington Nationals +205
- Over 8 (-110)
- Under 8 (-110)
- New York Mets -1.5 (-130)
- Washington Nationals +1.5 (+110)
Will This be Corbin’s Final Start for the Nationals?
While Scherzer remains one of MLB’s best starting pitchers, Corbin is arguably the worst. He leads the league in losses, hits allowed, WHIP, and OBA, and among qualified starting pitchers, he is last in ERA.
That is why the Nationals are reportedly looking for Juan Soto’s suitors to take on Corbin’s contract if the star outfielder is dealt before tomorrow’s trade deadline.
The 33-year-old ended June and started July with his two best starts of the season. But his resurgence was a brief one. In his final four starts of the month, he allowed 20 runs and 32 hits in 16.2 innings.
In his last start, he lasted only two-thirds of an inning against the Dodgers last Wednesday, allowing six runs, seven hits, and a walk.
For what it is worth though, things have been less disastrous at home (3-6, 4.94 ERA in 11 starts) than on the road (1-8, 8.43 ERA in 10 starts).
Also, two of his better starts this season–the bar is low, certainly, but it is worth noting–have come against the Mets at home. He has allowed two or fewer runs just five times this season, with four coming at home and two coming at home against tonight’s opposition.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Prediction and Picks
Mets vs. Nationals Prediction: Mets to win
While Corbin is in the midst of a poor stretch, there is another somewhat bright spot in addition to his home splits versus his road splits: Of the five previous starts following a start in which he gave up at least six runs, he gave up three or fewer runs four times.
That said, it’s hard to be encouraged about how he will fare here. As bad as this season has been for him, this current stretch is the only stretch in which he has allowed five or more runs in three or more consecutive starts.
Also, the Mets enter this matchup on a six-game win streak, and in this streak, they have scored six or more runs four times. Prior to the streak, they had scored six or more runs only five times in their first 19 July games.
The NL East leaders are also more productive in night games, hitting .263 and averaging 4.98 runs per game in 62 games compared to a .244 average and 4.26 runs per game in 39 day games.
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Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.