Mets vs. Mariners: Both teams just dropped two of three in their last series and with each in the thick of the postseason race, a strong start to this three-game set at Citi Field is critical. Let's break down which squad I think bounces back tonight with my best bet.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
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Mets vs. Mariners Best Bet – August 15
Will Francisco Lindor be be able to produce against right-hander Luis Castillo?
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The Mets are slight home favorites here, and it's easy to see why.
Mets vs. Castillo
While Luis Castillo's surface numbers aren't overly concerning, there are red flags in certain areas. His ERA sits at an impressive 3.19, but his xERA is 4.11 and his xFIP is 4.12. Opponents are also making a ton of hard contact against him, with a 46% hard-hit rate and 10% barrel rate – hefty damage for a pitcher carrying such a low ERA. The biggest concern is his home/road splits: at home, he owns a 2.41 ERA and .266 wOBA, but on the road those numbers jump to 4.31 and .338.
This hints at regression and it could very well come against a Mets offense that ranks 9th in wRC+ (110) vs. righties since July 1. I'm banking on that happening and targeting the affordable moneyline price on the better offense against an overvalued pitcher.
Best Bet: Mets Moneyline (-117) odds via BetOnline
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