Braves vs Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Preview and Best Bets: Will Dodgers Dent Deficit Behind Buehler Brilliance?
For the second straight year, the Atlanta Braves have a 2-0 NLCS lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers. After Austin Riley walked it off to win Game 1 in Atlanta, four-hit hero Eddie Rosario did the deed in Game 2 to put the Braves halfway to a World Series berth.
But can the Braves finish the job from here to return to the World Series for the first time since 1999? Last year, the Dodgers dominated in Game 3 before the Braves turned the tables in a Game 4 rout to take a 3-1 lead. That lead didn’t hold up as the Dodgers rallied for three straight wins in Arlington to advance to the World Series. This time around, one win in Los Angeles would mean that even if the Dodgers take the other two at home, the Braves would have two shots to clinch in front of a hyped-up home crowd.
Today the Dodgers will look to pull one back with Walker Buehler on the hill. Buehler was one of the NL Cy Young favorites before dropping off of the pace in September, but he has had a career-best season. The Braves, meanwhile, have veteran Charlie Morton on the mound. While Max Fried has been fantastic since the All-Star break, Morton has been the Braves’ most consistent starter all season long.
Will the Dodgers take care of business at home to grab their first win of the series? Or will the Braves move within a win of a long-awaited return to the Fall Classic?
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Matchup
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Matchup
- Matchup: Atlanta Braves (2-0) vs Los Angeles Dodgers (0-2)
- Time: 5:08 p.m. ET/2:08 p.m. PT
- TV: TBS
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Pitching Matchup
- Atlanta Braves: Charlie Morton (2021 Regular Season: 14-6, 3.34 ERA; 2021 MLB Playoffs: 0-1, 3.86 ERA)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler (2021 Regular Season: 16-4, 2.47 ERA; 2021 MLB Playoffs: 0-1, 3.38 ERA)
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 3 and Series Odds
NLCS Game 3 Odds
- Atlanta Braves +160
- Los Angeles Dodgers -190
- OVER 7.5 (-102)
- UNDER 7.5 (-120)
- Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-142)
- Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+118)
NLCS Series Odds
Odds to Win the NLCS
- Los Angeles Dodgers +168
- Atlanta Braves -200
NLCS Series Spread
- Los Angeles Dodgers +1.5 (-130)
- Atlanta Braves -1.5 (+106)
NLCS Series Total Games
- 4 Games: +490
- 5 Games: +430
- 6 Games: +190
- 7 Games: +170
NLCS Series Correct Outcome
- Atlanta Braves 4-2 (+390)
- 4-3 Los Angeles Dodgers (+360)
- Los Angeles Dodgers 4-2 (+500)
- 4-3 Atlanta Braves (+490)
- Atlanta Braves 4-1 (+410)
- 4-0 Atlanta Braves (+470)
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 4:00 p.m. ET. To compare MLB betting odds from top online sportsbooks, including FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and more, check out our MLB odds page.
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers NLCS Game 3 Picks
- 20% Atlanta Braves
- 80% Los Angeles Dodgers
Total (at O/U 7.5)
- 60% OVER 7.5
- 40% UNDER 7.5
Run Line (at +/-1.5)
- 100% Atlanta Braves +1.5
- 0% Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Breakdown
MLB Betting Trends to Consider for Braves vs Dodgers NLCS Game 3
All of these trends include all games of the 2021 MLB playoffs unless otherwise stated.
- In games following one day of rest this season, the Braves are 14-9.
- The Dodgers are 14-11 this season in games following one day of rest.
- The Dodgers are 60-24 as a home favorite this season, having been favored in every home game they have played in the regular season and playoffs.
- In 36 games as a road underdog, the Braves are 14-22. They did, however, win Game 2 of their NLDS matchup with the Brewers in Milwaukee.
- In games following a win this season, the Braves have posted a 50-42 record.
- The Dodgers, meanwhile, are 36-23 following a loss.
- When the Braves have been a home underdog, the over is 13-23.
- When the Dodgers have been a home favorite, the over is 35-43-6.
Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bets
Dodgers UNDER 4 Total Runs
Atlanta Braves +1.5
Braves vs Dodgers UNDER 7.5
In his lone visit to Dodger Stadium this season, Morton was unfortunate to come away with a no-decision in a game in which he shut down the Dodgers over six innings.
This will be Morton’s 15th career postseason start, and he is 7-4 in 15 postseason appearances (14 starts). So don’t expect him to get sucked in by the enormity of the situation or the matchup. As I said about the Braves prior to Game 2, they’re playing with house money here. They may be favored to win the series now that they are up 2-0, but they still can play stress-free. And every time the Dodgers have thrown a punch so far, the Braves have had an answer. I don’t expect different today, even with the series now back at Dodger Stadium.
While this is a perfect time for the Dodgers to flex their muscles and break out the bats in a big way, much like they did in Game 3 of last season’s NLCS and both situations in which they trailed in the NLDS against the Giants, I like what Atlanta’s arms have done. The two teams have now faced off 15 times across last season and this season, and the Braves have held the Dodgers to four or fewer runs 10 times, including six times in eight meetings this season.
I do think the Dodgers pull this one out to make it 2-1 in the series, but there’s no value in backing their ML here. I look for it to be a tight, low-scoring game, whether it is 2-1, 3-2, or 4-3. Even if it is the last one and the Dodgers push on the team total, that 4-3 scoreline would see the other two bets cash.
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