Guardians vs. Yankees ALDS Game 1 Betting: Will Quantrill’s three-month hot streak continue in the postseason?

Eddie Griffin

After winning 99 games and returning to the top of the AL East, the New York Yankees are favored to reach the ALCS, which could see them face the Houston Astros for the AL pennant for the third time in six seasons. But first, there’s the not so small matter of dispatching the Cleveland Guardians in the ALDS.

Earning one of the top two seeds in the AL means that the Yankees are able to turn to their ace to open their MLB playoff run, as Gerrit Cole will draw the starting nod for tonight’s Game 1 matchup at Yankee Stadium.

After pitching in Cleveland’s postseason opener against the Tampa Bay Rays last Friday, Guardians ace Shane Bieber will draw the Game 2 start tomorrow night.

But the visitors will call upon one of the league’s hottest pitchers, who didn’t lose over the final three months of the regular season.

In a best-of-five series, grabbing the early advantage is vital. The Yankees had the best home record in the league this season, but the Guardians had one of the league’s best road records.

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Game 1 Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

  • Matchup: #3 Cleveland Guardians (0-0) vs. #2 New York Yankees (0-0)
  • Venue & Location: Yankee Stadium (New York, New York)
  • Date: Tuesday, October 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:37 p.m. Eastern Time
  • How to Watch Guardians vs. Yankees Game 1: TBS

Guardians vs. Yankees Pitching Matchup

  • Cleveland: RHP Cal Quantrill (2022 regular season: 32 starts, 15-5, 3.38 ERA)
  • New York: RHP Gerrit Cole (2022 regular season: 33 starts, 13-8, 3.50 ERA)

Guardians vs. Yankees Odds

Game odds are via FanDuel. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

  • Cleveland Guardians +172
  • New York Yankees -205

Over/Under

  • Over 7.5 (+104)
  • Under 7.5 (-128)

Run Line

  • Cleveland Guardians +1.5 (-130)
  • New York Yankees -1.5 (+108)

Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Betting Picks

Guardians vs. Yankees Prediction: Cleveland to win

Guardians vs. Yankees Picks: Cleveland +1.5 (Best Value: -130 at FanDuel & BetMGM) & Cleveland ML (Best Value: +172 at FanDuel)

After almost throwing away a huge lead in the AL East, the Yankees finished strong down the stretch, going 20-9 in their last 29 games to comfortably lock up their first AL East title since 2019.

Now, they have to turn that regular season success into postseason success, and Game 1 and series odds are both heavily in their favor.

Cole led the league in strikeouts, but he gave up three or more runs 16 times in his 33 starts, including each of his last five to end the regular season.

Quantrill had half as many strikeouts as Cole, but he finished with more wins and a lower ERA thanks to an astounding final three months.

Over Quantrill’s final 17 starts of the regular season, the Guardians went 16-1. In that period, he went 11-1 with a 2.97 ERA. In his final four road starts, the 27-year-old went 4-0 with a 0.72 ERA, allowing just two runs, 20 hits, and five walks and striking out 24.

I can give the Yankees credit for shaking off the extended offensive slump that could have cost them the division and averaging 5.3 runs per game in their 20-9 stretch to close out the regular season.

But I’m not quite sold on New York being such a big favorite against Cleveland, tonight or for the series. The Guardians have the pitching to keep the Yankees quiet at the plate, and Cole’s so-so form down the stretch raises some concerns.

With that in mind and with road teams already having a lot of success in the postseason, I’m all too happy to jump on some outstanding value tonight.

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Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and Betting on sports for over a decade. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on Twitter.