Cubs vs. Twins: Michael Busch Picks & Predictions | July 8, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Tue Jul 08, 2025, 4:00 pm ET
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Cubs vs. Twins: Michael Busch is dialed in and heading into a dream matchup in Minnesota. The numbers back it. The trends demand attention.
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Cubs vs. Twins Best Bets – July 8
Can Michael Busch keep his hot bat alive in Minnesota?
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After a fiery series against the Cardinals, can Michael Busch keep it rolling in Minnesota? I think he can. I absolutely love his matchup today against Simeon Woods Richardson, who holds the second-worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box's current season rankings. He grades poorly in matchup wOBA, ISO, strikeout percentage, and ground ball percentage.
Trust the MLB Trends
Left-handed hitters have been feasting on the Twins starter, batting over .300 with a .477 slugging percentage and .848 OPS. On the road against right-handed pitching, Busch owns a .328 average, .672 slugging percentage, 1.065 OPS, and a 195 wRC+.
Woods Richardson leans heavily on his fastball and slider—roughly 75% of his pitch mix. Busch is one of the best hitters on the Cubs roster against those pitches, with an OPS above .741 and a wRC+ of 127 or better. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks as the No. 1 hitter in baseball against the slider, with a run value of +5. Against the remaining 25%—his changeup and curveball—Busch is batting above .318, with an OPS over 1.102 and a wRC+ north of 212.
This season, the Cubs first baseman has played in 17 elite-rated games. In those games, he has recorded a hit nearly 90% of the time, two hits in 41%, gone over this prop in 64%, and hit a home run in 35%. It is not an overwhelming sample, but it is strong enough to trust.
Sure, Busch is coming off a hot weekend, but the numbers and trends are too good to pass up in my opinion.
Best Bet: Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases (+125) odds via BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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