Do we have ourselves a series? Expert Picks (10/28)

Isn't is funny how one game can all of a sudden just change the momentum of series just a little bit. Brewers were three out aways from winning their first World Series and instead they get ready for Game 5 tonight.

After Cooper Pratt gave the Brewers the lead in the Top of the 12th it looked like the Brewers were going to sweep. Then the Rays scored two runs in the bottom of the 12th and forced a Game 5. The Brewers still have a 3-1 series lead and can still win the World Series tonight, but now it does feel like there is some pressure on them after coming so close to winning it all. Let's dive into my MLB best bets for Wednesday, October 28th.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays MLB Betting Insights

 

It looked like the Rays season was coming to an end last night. They had a 1-0 lead and 2-1 lead and in typical Brewers fashion, Milwaukee tied it both times. When the Brewers took the lead in the 12th inning it looked like it was over. Credit to Tampa, they showed why they won the AL Pennant. Down 0-3 in the series, down to their last 3 outs and they continued to fight.

The Rays hit 5 singles in the bottom of the 12 and in a way – out Brewers the Brewers. They hit them with their own medicine of small ball and moving runners over. Now we might have ourselves a series. All the pressure is on Milwaukee tonight.

Even though the Brewers still have two more potential games at home and are a perfect 6-0 in Milwaukee this postseason, they really need to close this thing out tonight. For one, Jacob Misikorowski is on the mound tonight who is going to win NL Cy Young this year. Secondly, you lose tonight and then all the pressure in the world is on you to close things out in Game 6 because you don't want to play a winner-take-all Game 7 after having a 3-0 lead.

The Red Sox are famously the only team in the history of MLB to come back from an 0-3 deficit. We still have a ways to go, but for two teams that have never won a World Series, it was never going to be easy for the winner was it?

Matchup Information — Brewers vs Rays – October 28

• Venue: Tropicana Field ( St. Petersburg, FL)

• Date: Wednesday, October 28, 2026

• First Pitch: 8:00 PM ET

• Broadcast: FOX

Guardians vs Rays Pitching Matchup

• Milwaukee Brewers: RHP Jacob Misiorowski (1-0, 2.70 ERA)
• Tampa Bay Rays: Undecided

Guardians vs Rays Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of our friends at LuckyRebel:

Run Line

• Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+117)

• Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-138)

Moneyline

• Brewers -160

• Rays +134

Total

• Over 6.5 (-120)

• Under 6.5 (+100)

 

Milwaukee Brewers vs Tampa Bay Rays MLB Picks

 

Best Bet: Rays +1.5 (-138), Jacob Misiorokwski Over 5.5 strikeouts (-125)  – Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

Maybe this was the way it had to be for Milwaukee. Win your first World Series and "Miz" was the guy who had to be on the mound to start the game for you. The Brewers have a terrific bullpen and all postseason the 3-headed monster of Uribe, Ashby, and Megill have been outstanding. Pat Murphy has no problem trusting those three guys to close out a game, but also how do you not let Misiorowski go until he can't tonight. What's the point of having maybe the best starting pitcher in the sport if you don't use him for games like this?

Miz has only had to make 3 postseason starts. The Brewers are 3-0 in those games and he has allowed 2 ER or fewer in all of them. He struck out 6 against the Padres, 5 against the Dodgers, and 3 against Tampa in game one of the series. With last night's game going to the 12th inning and this being the 3rd straight game in 3 days, I think Brewers manager, Pat Murphy could ask Misiorowski to throw 100+ pitches tonight, something he hasn't done since July 7th and has only done three times this season.

To me that is the most interesting part of Game 5 tonight is how Pat Murphy manages this game knowing he has the best starting pitcher in baseball and a tired bullpen. Too many times we see managers pull their pitchers early and I wonder if we see that again tonight. It's also worth noting that in all 3 games that Miz has started the Brewers have won by exactly one run which is why I like Tampa on the run line +1.5 (-138). Should be another great game tonight, we will see if the Brewers can avoid going back to Milwaukee and close it out in Game 5.

Brewers vs Rays Predictions: Brewers win

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