Will a dramatic win last night prove to be what the New York Yankees needed? We'll find out during their four-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays, which starts tonight.
After dropping the first two games of their series against the visiting Tampa Bay Rays, the Yankees were staring at a sweep and a 12th loss in 14 games last night.
But they forced extra innings after trailing 4-0 at one point, and after allowing three runs in the top of the tenth, Josh Donaldson stepped up and delivered in what could be a defining moment in the Yankees' season.
Part of why the Blue Jays entered this season with sky-high expectations was the talent they had accumulated on the mound. That includes Berrios, who went 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts for Toronto last year after being acquired from Minnesota.
But Hyun Jin Ryu made only six starts before being shelved with elbow ligament damage in June, Yusei Kikuchi has struggled, Kevin Gausman is 3-6 with a 4.63 ERA at home, and Berrios, despite a winning record, has been a major disappointment.
The 28-year-old righty had his best month of the season in July, going 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA and four quality starts in six starts.
But the wheels have fallen off again in August. Against his former team, he allowed five runs, six hits, and two walks in just 3.2 innings, and against the Guardians last time out, he allowed eight runs, eight hits, and two walks in four innings.
Berrios gave up two homers in each of those starts, taking his season total to 26, which leads MLB ahead of Milwaukee's Eric Lauer (24) and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray (23).
In two starts against the Yankees this season, both of which have been at Yankee Stadium, Berrios has allowed eight runs, 11 hits, three homers, and four walks in 10.1 innings. Overall, he is 2-4 with a 7.50 ERA in 11 away starts, and opponents are hitting .316 against him on the road.
None of that bodes very well for Berrios, but it does bode well for over bettors. Of the 23 games that he has started, there have been nine or more combined runs scored in 13 of them, including eight of his 11 road starts.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees Prediction and Picks
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction: Toronto to win
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Picks: Blue Jays ML (Best Value: +135 at Bovada Sportsbook) & Blue Jays/Yankees over 8.5 (Best Value: -109 at BetUS)
While his numbers are not great, Toronto is 16-7 in Berrios's starts this season, including a 5-6 mark in his away starts. And they have yet to lose three of his starts in a row this season.
Toronto scores better on the road (4.89 runs per game) than at home (4.51 runs per game), and they hit better against right-handed pitchers (.264) than left-handed pitchers (.257).
In fact, the Jays lead the league in batting average against right-handed starters (.271), well ahead of the Dodgers (.264) and Mets (.261). And in games against right-handed starters, they average 4.97 runs, compared to 3.57 runs per game against southpaw starters.
So, there is a lot of value in backing Toronto to get the win tonight in the Big Apple, even though they come in with just three wins in their last 11 games.
Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.
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