Diamondbacks vs Dodgers Preview: Run Line Value for Buehler, Dodgers Even With Bumgarner On the Bump
In mid-April, no one would have expected that the first Diamondbacks vs Dodgers matchup of the season would occur with only 4.5 games between the two teams in the latest MLB standings.
But that is where we are entering tonight’s series opener at Dodger Stadium. And that amount of separation is only there because the Dodgers have won four of their last five games, while the Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five.
Tonight’s NL West showdown is quite the matchup on the mound, with a resurgent Madison Bumgarner starting for the Diamondbacks and Walker Buehler starting for the Dodgers.
Let’s take a look at this Diamondbacks vs Dodgers matchup and where the best betting value is.
Arizona Diamondbacks (18-23) vs Los Angeles Dodgers (22-18), MLB Network, 10:10 pm ET
Pitching Matchup: Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers
- Arizona Diamondbacks: Madison Bumgarner (4-2, 4.12 ERA)
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.45 ERA)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Odds
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +194, Dodgers -235
- Total: OVER 7 (-102), UNDER 7 (-120)
- Run Line: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-125), Dodgers -1.5 (+104)
Diamondbacks vs Dodgers odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Monday, May 17 at 2:35 pm ET. For more MLB betting odds, check out our MLB odds, featuring updated odds from FanDuel and other top online sportsbooks.
Will Bumgarner’s Stellar Stretch Continue in Familiar Territory?
After posting a career-worst 6.48 ERA in his first season with the Diamondbacks and starting this season 0-2 with an 11.20 ERA in his first three starts, many might have wondered if MadBum’s best days stayed behind in San Francisco.
A month and five starts later, and any such thoughts have been banished emphatically. The highlight of that quintet of starts is his no-hitter (listen, the MLB rulebook can say all it wants what a no-hitter is or isn’t and, but it was a no-hitter) against the Atlanta Braves on April 25. Overall, he is 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA in his last five starts, allowing only three runs (all earned) in 30 innings. Also, after eight walks in his first three starts, he has 34 strikeouts and two walks in this five-start stretch.
Spending a decade with the San Francisco Giants and then remaining in the NL West by joining up with the Diamondbacks means that Bumgarner is rather familiar with the Dodgers and Dodger Stadium. In 37 career appearances (36 starts) against the Dodgers, Bumgarner is 15-14 with a 2.74 ERA. 22 appearances (21 starts) have come at Dodger Stadium, where he is 9-9 with a 2.67 ERA.
Diamondbacks in the Midst of a Miserable May
Bumgarner’s uptick in form coincided with an uptick in the Diamondbacks’ form. After a 5-10 start, Arizona got hot and won 10 of their next 13 games. And he has remained a bright spot as the uptick has given way to another 10 of 13 run. This run, however, is a run of 10 losses in 13 games. In their weekend series against the Washington Nationals, the results were all over the place: a 17-2 loss on Friday, an 11-4 win on Saturday, and a 3-0 loss yesterday.
This week features a four-game set at Dodger Stadium and then three at Coors Field against the Rockies, and the Diamondbacks need some road wins starting tonight. They have been swept in their last two road series, first by the Miami Marlins and then by the New York Mets.
One-run games have not featured frequently for Arizona thus far. Only one of their 18 wins is a one-run win, while only six of their losses are one-run losses. So if you are backing the Dodgers to take the win tonight, the run line holds a lot of value.
Can Buehler Buy a Decision?
Jacob deGrom is considered by many to be the unluckiest pitcher in baseball, and he has an excellent case. But so does Buehler.
The good: Buehler doesn’t have a regular season loss since September 21, 2019, against the Colorado Rockies. He is unbeaten in 16 regular season starts since: one in 2019, eight in 2020, and seven so far in 2021.
The bad: In those 16 starts, Buehler has a record of–wait for it–3-0. That’s right, in 16 starts, he has only three decisions. It’s not even a matter of exiting early, at least not this season. He has pitched at least six innings in all seven starts, and five of his seven starts are quality starts.
For his career, the numbers are better, but they’re still not great. In 77 career appearances (68 starts), Buehler has received a decision 34 times. That comes out to 44 percent. By comparison, Clayton Kershaw has had 260 decisions in 360 appearances, which comes out to 71 percent. Even deGrom has fared markedly better, getting decisions in exactly two-thirds of his career starts (126 of 189).
The Dodgers did miss out on the sweep against the Miami Marlins, but it was still a much-needed good week for the reigning World Series champs. They went 4-1 overall, sweeping a two-game set with the Seattle Mariners and taking two of three from the Marlins.
Though this season has not taken the direction it looked like it would after a 13-2 start, the Dodgers do have a 12-6 record at home. 10 of their 12 home wins and 18 of their 22 overall wins this season have come by multiple runs. That further reinforces the value in the run line for Dodgers backers tonight, even though run line picks for this matchup lean the other way.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Consensus
- Moneyline: 50% Diamondbacks, 50% Dodgers
- Total: 83% OVER, 17% UNDER (at O/U 7)
- Run Line: 67% Diamondbacks, 33% Dodgers
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