Kevin Gausman gets the nod for the Blue Jays this afternoon
The Diamondbacks are in a bit of a slump. They've lost two straight in this series and three consecutive overall. This is the first of a three series roadtrip for the Snakes, and I doubt they want to start things off by getting swept. They've scored just seven runs in their last three losses, when they are third in the National League in runs scored per game.
Matchup Information – Diamondbacks vs. Blue Jays – June 19
Venue & Location: Rogers Centre (Toronto, Ontario)
Date: Thursday, June 19, 2025
First Pitch: 3:07 p.m. Eastern
Pitching Matchup
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ryne Nelson (3-2, 4.14 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
Toronto Blue Jays: Kevin Gausman (5-5, 4.08 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)
The Blue Jays are 24-13 at home this year, which makes me a little weary that the Diamondbacks pull off a win, considering they are just 16-19 on the road. However, I do think their offense will come alive after taking three games off, and I think we are getting a discount on their team total prop.
Don't be afraid, pay a little juice for just four runs from the Snakes. They've only cleared this once in their last three losses, but prior to that they scored four or more runs in five straight. Admittedly, their batting average takes a hit on the road, however they jump to .257 against right-handed pitching.
Kevin Gausman has allowed at least three earned runs in three straight starts. He's given up nine total in his last three outings at home as well, and against a Diamondbacks offense that is looking to break out of a slump, he might be in for a rough night.
Arizona has two elite rated hitters and three others with a great matchup against Gausman. Plus, they have four others with an above average rating.
Gausman only throws three pitches. Yes, his fastball is SLIGHTLY above league average, but he throws it over 54% of the time. In the big leagues, eventually that's not going to be enough.
Tonight I think the Diamondbacks are capable of scoring at least four runs to cash our bet.
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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