NFL MVP Betting Guide: How to Handicap & Bet on NFL MVP Odds
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Wed Sep 09, 2026, 2:37 am ET
Read Time: 18 minutes
NFL MVP is the most prominent individual award in professional football, and betting on who will win it is one of the NFL's biggest futures markets.
Sportsbooks typically release NFL MVP odds months before the regular season begins and continue updating them throughout the year. A preseason favorite may remain among the leaders all season, while another player can move from a longshot to the top of the odds board after emerging as a serious contender.
Finding a good NFL MVP bet requires more than predicting which player will finish with the best statistics. Position and team success can shape the race, while bettors also need to consider how a candidate compares with the competition.
Then there is the betting side of the equation. A player can have a realistic chance to win MVP without being worth betting at his current odds. Prices also change throughout the season as games provide more information and the race takes shape.
This guide covers current NFL MVP odds, what bettors should know about the award, how to handicap the race, and how to approach betting on MVP throughout the season.
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NFL MVP Odds and Favorites
NFL MVP odds are available before the season begins and throughout the regular season, giving bettors months to evaluate candidates and decide whether there are worthwhile opportunities in the market.
Prices can differ between sportsbooks, so line shopping can be especially useful when wagering on futures. Comparing MVP odds at the best NFL betting sites can help you find a better price before placing your bet.
Prices can also change substantially during the season. Individual performances and team results can move a candidate up or down the board, while injuries and developments involving other contenders can reshape the market as well.
The table below features the latest available 2026 NFL MVP odds.
2026 NFL MVP Odds
Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Wednesday, September 9, 2026.
| Odds | Player (Position, Team) |
| +675 | Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo Bills) |
| +875 | Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens) |
| +925 | Joe Burrow (QB, Cincinnati Bengals) |
| +1100 | Drake Maye (QB, New England Patriots) Justin Herbert (QB, Los Angeles Chargers) |
| +1400 | Caleb Williams (QB, Chicago Bears) Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City Chiefs) |
| +1500 | Dak Prescott (QB, Dallas Cowboys) Matthew Stafford (QB, Los Angeles Rams) |
| +1700 | Brock Purdy (QB, San Francisco 49ers) |
| +2000 | Jalen Hurts (QB, Philadelphia Eagles) |
| +2500 | Jayden Daniels (QB, Washington Commanders) Jordan Love (QB, Green Bay Packers) Trevor Lawrence (QB, Jacksonville Jaguars) |
| +3000 | Sam Darnold (QB, Seattle Seahawks) |
| +3300 | Jared Goff (QB, Detroit Lions) |
| +4000 | Baker Mayfield (QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers) Bo Nix (QB, Denver Broncos) |
| +5000 | Kyler Murray (QB, Minnesota Vikings) |
| +5500 | C.J. Stroud (QB, Houston Texans) |
| +6500 | Jaxson Dart (QB, New York Giants) |
| +7500 | Cam Ward (QB, Tennessee Titans) Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Detroit Lions) |
| +10000 | Daniel Jones (QB, Indianapolis Colts) Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Seattle Seahawks) Myles Garrett (DE, Los Angeles Rams) Tyler Shough (QB, New Orleans Saints) |
| +12500 | Bryce Young (QB, Carolina Panthers) J.J. McCarthy (QB, Minnesota Vikings) Malik Willis (QB, Miami Dolphins) Michael Penix Jr. (QB, Atlanta Falcons) |
| +15000 | Bijan Robinson (RB, Atlanta Falcons) Fernando Mendoza (QB, Las Vegas Raiders) Puka Nacua (WR, Los Angeles Rams) |
| +17500 | Christian McCaffrey (RB, San Francisco 49ers) Kirk Cousins (QB, Las Vegas Raiders) |
Odds are subject to change.
NFL MVP Basics
What Is NFL MVP?
The Associated Press NFL Most Valuable Player award recognizes the player selected as the league's MVP for that regular season.
The AP has presented its MVP award since 1957. A nationwide panel of 50 media members who regularly cover the NFL votes on the award.
Under the ranked voting system introduced for the 2022 season, each voter selects five MVP candidates in order of preference. The rankings are converted into points, and the player who receives the highest total wins the award.
MVP is one of several major individual NFL awards presented each season. Offensive and Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year are among the other honors bettors may encounter in NFL awards markets.
That distinction matters for bettors because NFL MVP isn't determined by a statistical formula. No specific statistical benchmark or accomplishment automatically produces an MVP.
Instead, voters compare candidates and decide which player built the strongest case over the course of the regular season. Voting takes place at the end of the regular season, so performances in the NFL Playoffs don't factor into the award.
NFL MVP handicapping therefore requires bettors to consider individual performance within the context of the entire race.
How Do NFL MVP Odds Work?
NFL MVP odds are futures odds representing a sportsbook's price on each player's chances of winning the award.
For example, a player listed at +500 would return $500 in profit on a successful $100 wager, while a $100 bet at +2000 would return $2,000 in profit.
Those prices can also be converted into implied probability. Odds of +500 represent an implied probability of approximately 16.7%, while +2000 represents approximately 4.8%.
Sportsbooks continue adjusting MVP odds throughout the season as the race develops. A candidate's current price tells only part of the story, as line movement can show how that price has changed as the season unfolds.
A player may shorten after a series of strong performances, while poor play or an injury can send his price in the other direction.
Changes elsewhere in the race can matter too. If a leading candidate misses significant time or his team begins struggling, other players may shorten even if nothing dramatic has changed about their own performance.
The shortest odds identify the players the market considers most likely to win, but that doesn't automatically make the favorite the best bet. The price still needs to make sense relative to the player's chances of winning.
Why Do Quarterbacks Usually Win?
Quarterbacks have dominated modern NFL MVP voting.
Every AP NFL MVP winner since Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012 has been a quarterback. That run illustrates the significant positional hurdle facing anyone trying to win the award from somewhere else on the field.
Quarterbacks have an outsized influence on offensive production and touch the ball on almost every offensive snap. Their performance is also closely connected with how an offense and team are evaluated, giving elite quarterbacks a natural advantage when voters compare MVP cases.
That combination gives quarterbacks a structural advantage in the MVP race. When one of the NFL's best teams is led by a quarterback having an outstanding season, many of the ingredients voters have historically rewarded are already present.
A non-quarterback can still win. Running backs have captured the award numerous times historically, and players at other positions have received MVP recognition as well. However, the modern path is exceptionally difficult.
For bettors, that doesn't mean every non-quarterback should be dismissed. It means the price needs to account for the additional obstacles that player faces. A running back, receiver, or defensive player may need an extraordinary season along with circumstances that prevent one of the league's top quarterbacks from building a stronger case.
How to Approach NFL MVP Handicapping
Handicapping NFL MVP requires evaluating more than which players you expect to have good seasons. The goal is to identify candidates capable of building a winning MVP case and determine how their path compares with the rest of the field.
Personal rooting interests can complicate that evaluation. If you are betting on a favorite player, apply the same standards you would to any other candidate rather than giving him a stronger MVP case simply because you want him to succeed.
A player can have an outstanding season without having the strongest MVP case, especially if another contender performs at an even higher level.
The information available to bettors also changes throughout the year. Before Week 1, much of the handicap is based on projections. Once the season begins, actual performance can gradually replace those assumptions.
What Factors Matter Most When Handicapping the Award?
No individual statistic or accomplishment guarantees an MVP. Bettors instead need to evaluate several factors that help determine the strength of a candidate's case.
The importance of those factors can vary by player. An elite quarterback on a Super Bowl contender faces a much different path than a non-quarterback trying to overcome the position's historical disadvantage.
Individual Performance
An MVP candidate needs an exceptional individual season.
For quarterbacks, passing production and touchdowns are obvious considerations, while rushing contributions can add another dimension to a candidate's case. Non-quarterbacks generally need production that separates them significantly from others at their position.
Rather than targeting one statistical threshold, compare a candidate's overall performance with the other players competing for the award.
Team Success
Individual production becomes more compelling when it contributes to winning.
A quarterback performing at an elite level for one of the NFL's top teams generally has a clearer MVP path than a similarly productive player whose team is struggling to reach the playoffs.
That creates a natural connection between the MVP race and the teams leading the Super Bowl betting market. A strong MVP candidate doesn't need to play for the Super Bowl favorite, but team success can strengthen the case surrounding an outstanding individual season.
MVP candidates don't perform in isolation, either. In handicapping NFL games, you can find useful context for evaluating the team, matchups, and circumstances surrounding a candidate's individual performance.
Team expectations therefore matter before the season, while standings and playoff positioning provide more meaningful evidence as the year progresses.
Positional Value
Position affects how difficult the path to MVP will be. Bettors considering a running back, receiver, or defensive player should account for the additional hurdle rather than evaluating every candidate as though the paths were equal.
Efficiency and Turnovers
Volume statistics don't tell the entire story.
Efficiency can help distinguish candidates with similar production, while turnovers can weaken an otherwise impressive case. Important NFL stats and metrics can reveal differences between candidates that traditional volume statistics may not show, but no single statistic determines who should win MVP.
Use those numbers to better understand the quality of a candidate's performance rather than searching for one metric that provides the answer.
Signature Performances
Certain games can become defining parts of an MVP season.
Outstanding performances in nationally televised games or major matchups can receive additional attention, especially when leading candidates face one another or a player excels against another top team.
One game shouldn't outweigh an entire season. However, memorable performances can help separate candidates whose overall cases are otherwise difficult to distinguish.
Availability
Players need to stay on the field long enough to build an MVP resume.
Missing one game doesn't necessarily eliminate a candidate, but extended absences reduce opportunities to accumulate production while other contenders continue strengthening their cases. Following NFL injury reports can help bettors assess a candidate's availability and understand injuries affecting the team around him.
Missed time can become increasingly difficult to overcome as the season progresses.
Competition for the Award
An MVP candidate isn't competing against a fixed benchmark. He is competing against the rest of the field.
A season worthy of serious MVP consideration one year may not be enough in another. Bettors therefore need to evaluate not only how well their candidate is performing, but what he may need to do to separate from his strongest competition.
How to Evaluate Candidates Throughout the Season
The information available for handicapping the MVP race changes significantly as the season progresses. Before Week 1, bettors are largely working with projections. Once games begin, those expectations can be tested against actual performance.
That makes MVP handicapping an ongoing process. Candidates should be reassessed as new information emerges rather than judged throughout the season by the assumptions that shaped their preseason outlook.
How to Evaluate Candidates Before the Season
Preseason MVP handicapping requires projecting individual performance and the environment in which it will occur.
Start by determining whether a player has a realistic MVP ceiling. For quarterbacks, consider the offense around them and whether their expected role provides enough opportunity to produce an award-caliber season.
Team expectations matter too. An MVP candidate benefits from playing for a team capable of winning consistently and competing near the top of its conference. Evaluating the NFL schedule can provide additional context for how difficult that path may be.
Then consider what needs to go right. An established superstar may already have an obvious path, while another candidate might require a significant individual leap or substantial improvement from his team.
Finally, consider the price. A realistic MVP path doesn't automatically make someone a worthwhile wager. The odds still need to compensate for the uncertainty involved in projecting an entire season.
How to Evaluate Candidates During the Season
Once games begin, preseason expectations should gradually give way to evidence. Determine whether a candidate's performance supports his production and whether his team appears capable of sustaining its success. Early results can reveal meaningful changes, but avoid drawing sweeping conclusions from only a few games.
Following an MVP candidate can also overlap with betting on that player from week to week. Leading quarterbacks and skill-position players frequently appear in NFL prop betting markets, allowing bettors to wager on their individual-game performance while following their season-long MVP case.
Many prop bets involving these players are offered as over/under bets, with bettors wagering on whether they will finish above or below a listed statistical total. Those markets are separate from MVP betting, but involve many of the same performances bettors evaluate throughout the award race.
Then look ahead. Remaining opponents and upcoming stretches of the schedule can affect a candidate's opportunity to strengthen his case. Injuries elsewhere on the roster may also change the environment around him.
As new information accumulates, NFL betting resources can help you follow statistics, news, injuries, and other developments throughout the season.
Continue comparing the candidate with the field. The MVP race can change because another player surges or a leading contender falls back, even if your candidate continues performing at roughly the same level.
Bettors with an existing MVP wager can also make futures review part of their weekly NFL betting checklist. That doesn't mean reacting to every game, but periodically reassessing the candidate and market can keep a season-long position in context.
Finally, reassess the price. A player's MVP case can improve while his betting value declines if his odds shorten more dramatically than his actual chances of winning.
How to Approach NFL MVP Betting
Identifying a strong MVP candidate doesn't automatically identify a good MVP bet. Bettors also need to consider the available price and how much exposure they want in a market with only one winner.
Those decisions can change throughout the season as odds move and the race becomes clearer. The goal is to turn your assessment of the candidates into betting decisions that make sense at the prices available.
When Is the Best Time to Bet?
There is no single best time to place an NFL MVP wager. As with deciding when to place your bets more generally, bettors face a tradeoff between price and information.
Preseason betting can provide longer odds because uncertainty is highest. If you identify a candidate before a breakout season, you may secure a price that disappears quickly once games begin.
Waiting gives you more evidence but may cost you the better number. By midseason, the realistic MVP field is usually easier to identify. Leading candidates may also carry much shorter odds by then.
Your timing should therefore depend on why you believe the market is wrong. If your opinion is based on a preseason projection, betting earlier may make sense. If you need to see how a player or team develops, waiting for more information may be worth sacrificing some of the potential payout.
Should You Bet the Favorite?
Being the favorite means a player is considered the most likely winner. It doesn't automatically make him a good or bad bet.
You can believe the favorite is the most likely player to win and still decide his odds are too short. Conversely, a favorite can offer value if you believe his chances are better than the available price suggests.
Evaluate the wager rather than the label attached to the player.
Are Longshots Worth Betting?
Longshots can provide appealing payouts, particularly before or early in the season. However, a large potential return can make unrealistic candidates look more attractive than they are.
Focus on the path rather than the payout. Determine what would need to happen for the player to become a serious contender and whether those developments are reasonably plausible.
Position and expected team success should be part of that assessment. The strongest longshots generally require fewer unlikely developments to become serious contenders. A path should be plausible, not merely imaginable.
Should You Bet Multiple Players?
Betting multiple candidates can make sense when you believe more than one player is worth backing at the available odds.
However, every additional wager increases your total investment in a market that can produce only one winner. Sound bankroll management therefore matters when deciding how much exposure you want to the MVP market.
Adding candidates simply because you want more ways to win can reduce the value of an otherwise sound position.
Evaluate each wager on its own merits and consider how another bet changes your overall exposure and potential return.
Can You Hedge Your Bet?
An early MVP wager can give you an opportunity to hedge your bet if the candidate's odds shorten substantially.
You may decide to back another contender later in the season to reduce your dependence on the original wager. That doesn't mean you need to hedge simply because you are holding a favorable position.
Consider the new odds and your existing exposure along with how much potential profit you would sacrifice. Treat the hedge as a new betting decision rather than an obligation created by the success of your original bet.
Past NFL MVP Winners
Recent NFL MVP history illustrates just how strongly quarterbacks have come to dominate the award.
Adrian Peterson was the last non-quarterback to win AP NFL MVP, capturing the award after rushing for 2,097 yards for the Minnesota Vikings in 2012. Every winner since has been a quarterback.
That history doesn't guarantee that the next MVP will play quarterback, but it provides important context for bettors evaluating candidates at other positions.
| Season | NFL MVP | Position | Team |
| 2025 | Matthew Stafford | QB | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2024 | Josh Allen | QB | Buffalo Bills |
| 2023 | Lamar Jackson | QB | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2021 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 2020 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 2019 | Lamar Jackson | QB | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2018 | Patrick Mahomes | QB | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | QB | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | QB | Carolina Panthers |
| 2014 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | QB | Denver Broncos |
| 2012 | Adrian Peterson | RB | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2011 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | Green Bay Packers |
| 2010 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
| 2009 | Peyton Manning | QB | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2008 | Peyton Manning | QB | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2007 | Tom Brady | QB | New England Patriots |
| 2006 | LaDainian Tomlinson | RB | San Diego Chargers |
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