Barcelona Open 2022 Semis Predictions, Betting Odds & Picks

Eddie Griffin

With weather affecting Wednesday and Thursday’s schedule at the 2022 ATP Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, that meant Friday was going to be a full day of tennis, featuring a number of the players in the game.

And the day certainly did not disappoint, with the best action saved for the four quarter-final matches. All four quarters went three sets, and all of the top four seeds in the tournament bowed out in the last eight.

So, here is the final four that will battle it out in the semis:

  • #5 seed Carlos Alcaraz
  • #6 seed Diego Schwartzman
  • #8 seed Pablo Carreno Busta
  • #10 seed Alex de Minaur

Alcaraz Ousts Tsitsipas as Tournament Favorites Tussle in Quarters

Alcaraz was the pre-tournament favorite, and he showed why in his two wins on Friday. In his round of 16 match against a dangerous and familiar opponent in fellow Spaniard Jaume Munar, Alcaraz was never in the least bit of trouble in a 6-3, 6-3 win.

In the quarters, he met #1 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas and outlasted the two-time Barcelona finalist 6-4, 5-7, 6-2. Tsitsipas was down two breaks in the second set and rallied to force a third set by breaking Alcaraz three times. But he couldn’t repeat the feat in the third set after dropping his first two service games in the decider.

In the match of the day, #8 seed Carreno Busta took out #2 seed Casper Ruud 4-6, 7-6 (10-8), 6-3 in a three-hour thriller. To reach his second straight ATP Barcelona semifinal, Carreno Busta fended off three match points while serving at 4-6, 4-5, won an 18-point tiebreak, overcame an early service break in the third, and rallied from a 0-40 deficit while serving for the match at 5-3.

In the other two quarters, Schwartzman lost the first set against #3 Felix Auger-Aliassime but took the last two to advance with a 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 win, and #10 seed Alex de Minaur took out #4 seed Cameron Norrie 6-3, 5-7, 6-1.

Weather Forces Another Double-Duty Day as Semis to be Completed Sunday

Sure, the top four players in the ATP rankings are not present in Barcelona. Rafael Nadal, Daniil Medvedev, and Alexander Zverev are all absent due to injury, while Novak Djokovic is playing at home in the Serbia Open in Belgrade.

And inclement weather came into play on Wednesday and Thursday, forcing double duty on Friday for eight players.

But we have been treated to a great tournament, and that should have gotten to continue on Saturday. There was rain in Saturday’s forecast, but the forecast also indicated that there should be enough clear weather to allow for the semis to be started and completed on Saturday.

Instead, only four games were able to be played in each semifinal. Both matches are set to resume at 11:00 a.m. Barcelona time (5:00 a.m. Eastern time) on Sunday morning, with the scoreline at 2-2 in the first set in both matches. The final will take place not before 4:00 p.m. Barcelona time (10:00 a.m. ET).

There is no wet weather in Sunday’s forecast, so we will get to see the close of a fantastic tournament without any further issues, knock on wood.

ATP Barcelona 2022 Men’s Singles Semifinals Schedule and Betting Odds

All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook.

2022 ATP Barcelona Open Schedule for Sunday, April 24

Scheduled start times are listed in Eastern Time. Barcelona time is ET + six hours (e.g., 5:00 a.m. ET is 11:00 a.m. Barcelona time).

Semifinals

#6 Diego Schwartzman vs. #8 Pablo Carreno Busta, resumes at 5:00 a.m. ET (2-2 in the first set, Carreno Busta serving)

#5 Carlos Alcaraz vs. #10 Alex de Minaur, resumes at 5:00 a.m. ET (2-2 in the first set, de Minaur serving)

Final

Alcaraz/de Minaur winner vs. Schwartzman/Carreno Busta winner, not before 10 a.m. ET

2022 ATP Barcelona Open Semifinals and Tournament Betting Odds

Odds are via FanDuel Sportsbook as of Sunday, April 24, at 3:45 a.m. ET. Listed match odds are live odds ahead of match resumption.

Semifinal #1: Schwartzman vs. Carreno Busta

  • Diego Schwartzman -140
  • Pablo Carreno Busta +106

Semifinal #2: Alcaraz vs. de Minaur

  • Carlos Alcaraz -800
  • Alex de Minaur +450

Odds to Win the 2022 ATP Barcelona Open

  • Carlos Alcaraz -300
  • Diego Schwartzman +390
  • Pablo Carreno Busta +700
  • Alex de Minaur +1600

ATP Barcelona 2022 Semifinals Predictions and Picks

#6 Diego Schwartzman vs. #8 Pablo Carreno Busta

In my look at ATP Barcelona tournament odds earlier this week, I picked Carreno Busta as the best value pick to win the tournament.

So, it’s safe to say that this has worked out rather well and will end with a positive week even if Carreno Busta’s run ends here.

These two players met in the quarters in Barcelona last year, with Carreno Busta prevailing 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 to set up a semifinal showdown with Nadal. By getting back to this round, the Spaniard has ensured that he won’t lose any ATP singles ranking points, which is the ideal minimum result you want to achieve.

Schwartzman has yet to win a title on clay this year, but he has put together some solid results on his best surface. He has reached at least the quarters in each of the five clay tournaments he has played and made back-to-back finals in Buenos Aires, Argentina (lost to Casper Ruud) and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (lost to Carlos Alcaraz) in February.

However, since I was riding the Carreno Busta train earlier in the week, am I going to get off of it at this point? I think not.

Schwartzman vs. Carreno Busta Prediction and Picks

Pre-Match Prediction: Carreno Busta to win in three sets

Pre-Match Pick: Carreno Busta ML (+110 at FanDuel Sportsbook & Caesars Sportsbook, +114 at BetRivers)

Live Pick: Carreno Busta ML (+106 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

#5 Carlos Alcaraz vs. #10 Alex de Minaur

Honesty is the best policy, and to be honest, there isn’t a shred of betting value here. Not a one, unless you want to wade into some unnecessary choices.

Alcaraz is justifiably a heavy favorite in this match. He is the superior clay player, and he is the tournament favorite. But he also had a three-setter against a far inferior player earlier in the week, as Soonwoo Kwon took a set off of him in the second round.

And while he is an 18-year-old who is an extremely fit elite athlete, he is coming off of a two-match day in which he played the last match of the day against the other most likely winner in the ATP Barcelona field.

While de Minaur has reached the semis without facing a similar challenge, he has done well to get here. And he didn’t have to do as much as Alcaraz did yesterday, as he was on court against round of 16 opponent Lloyd Harris for only 20 minutes and six games before Harris retired after being bageled in the first set.

So, anything can happen, really. And while I fully expect Alcaraz to dispatch de Minaur in straight sets, there is no real value to be had in backing that outcome.

The best option is to back him to win under 12.5 games, which accounts for him winning both sets without being pushed deep in either set. But at -156 (at FanDuel Sportsbook), it isn’t really worth the outlay.

Alcaraz vs. de Minaur Prediction and Picks

Pre-Match Prediction: Alcaraz to win in straight sets

Pre-Match Pick: none

Live Pick: Carlos Alcaraz to win game 5 of the 1st set (+135 at FanDuel Sportsbook) – Both players had to fend off an early break point, and de Minaur is serving to resume the match this morning.

As a personal rule, I typically don’t like to back breaks of serve at shorter than +120 odds (unless it’s a favorite player of mine or during a match in which breaks are frequent), so this is acceptable value, especially with Alcaraz such a big favorite in the match.

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