Spain vs. Argentina World Cup Final Odds and Insights: Can Messi Repeat on Sunday?
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Wed Jul 15, 2026, 5:46 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
FIFA World Cup
It all comes down to this. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is left with just one more (meaningful) match, as Spain and Argentina meet in the New York City area with a shot at glory. Argentina is the defending champions of course, and once again, they survived and advanced their way to a second straight World Cup Final. Spain is fresh off a EURO 2024 victory, but are playing in just their second World Cup final ever. Can they take down Messi and company? Let's look at the early betting odds, insights from our experts, and see how they might shift until kick off.
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Spain vs. Argentina FIFA World Cup Betting Insights
Lamine Yamal is playing in his first World Cup for Spain. Will they take home the trophy?
Spain and Argentina both topped their groups. The world No. 2 Spaniards drew with Cape Verde (No. 64), then beat Saudi Arabia (No. 58) and Uruguay (No. 20) in the group stage. But Uruguay looked awful, and honestly, Spain looked lazy against Cape Verde. After that, they turned it on in the knockouts, shutting out Austria (No. 23), Portugal (No. 7) and beating Belgium (No. 8). Finally, we saw them shutout France (No. 3) in the semifinal. This country is 1-0 all time in World Cup Finals, beating the Dutch in 2010.
Argentina beat Austria (No. 23), Algeria (No. 29) and Jordan (No. 73) in the group stage. Like Spain, they struggled with Cape Verde (No. 64), had a miraculous comeback against Egypt (No. 24), and knocked off a shorthanded Swiss team (No. 14). Then, as we just witnessed, they pulled off yet another miracle against England (No. 4), beating them 2-1 in the semifinal, scoring in the 85′ and 90'+2′ to break the British hearts.
Will they be the first team to win back to back World Cups since Brazil in 1958 and 1962?
Matchup Information – Spain vs. Argentina – July 19
- Venue & Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
- Date: Sunday, July 19, 2026
- Kick Off: 3:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX/Peacock
Spain vs. Argentina Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, as of July 15, 2026, at 5:21 p.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus as well as 50 slot spins immediately in your account and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.
Moneyline
- Spain +133
- Draw +202
- Argentina +263
To Lift the Trophy
- Spain -153
- Argentina +133
Spread
- Spain -0.25 (-110)
- Argentina +0.25 (-110)
Total
- Over 2 (-125)
- Under 2 (+109)
Spain vs. Argentina FIFA World Cup Analysis
Messi had both assists in Argentina's comeback against England in the World Cup Semifinal. Will the heroics continue on Sunday?
I have a future on Spain at 5-1, and I'm probably going to double down on this team. They have conceded just once all tournament long, and they made France (everyone's tourney favorite) look absolutely lost on the pitch. Sure, the early PK might have helped knock the French out of their rhythm, but Spain continued to push and defended well.
Despite the Argentinian heroics once again, I do not have faith in this team. The English match was cagey until things opened up, but it was clear that Argentina was nervous without the ball. Spain loves to sit back and possess, making you chase on defense and taking away your motivation to make runs on the counter. They have the man power to find an early lead and sit on it, even against Argentina. Plus, Marc Cucarella is having a great tournament defensively, and he has the tools to slow down No. 10.
Messi and his teammates needed extra time to take down Cape Verde, and a shorthanded Swiss team. Then they found late miracles against Egypt (three of them to be exact), and two against England. Their luck has to run out, and I'll be waiting for that to happen on Sunday.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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