Super Bowl Rematch: Patriots vs. Seahawks — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/9)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Mon Sep 07, 2026, 10:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
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+3.5
-110
44
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+160
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-3.5
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-175
The first game of the 2026 NFL Season is here and it's a good one; a Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots.
The last two teams left standing in 2025, will kick off the 2026 season. It's perfect.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: Lumen Field; Seattle, Washington
- Date: Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:20 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- New England Patriots: Drake Maye (2025: 14-3; 258.5 YPG | 31 TD | 8 INT)
- Seattle Seahawks: Sam Darnold (2025: 14-3; 254.1 YPG | 35 TD | 12 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Super Bowl Champs
In just his second year as Head Coach of the Seattle Seahawks, Mike Macdonald won the division, he had the #1 scoring defense in the NFL and he won a Super Bowl. You couldn't write up a better start to his career if you tried.
Macdonald's the brain behind this Seattle defense and let's just start there. The Seahawks gave up the fewest points per game (17.2), they ranked #1 in opponent redzone efficiency and they gave up the 2nd fewest yards per play.
This Seahawks' defense forced the 6th most turnovers in the NFL during the regular season and followed that up by forcing the most turnovers in the postseason. Seattle had a perfect +7 turnover differential in the postseason and 3 of those turnovers came in the actual Super Bowl.
Offensively, this team was phenomenal. The Hawks ranked 3rd in points scored (28.4), 8th in passing yards and averaged the 3rd highest yards per play (5.9).
Also, Sam Darnold is that guy. He's thrown 60 touchdowns in the last two years, he's thrown for 4,000 yards twice (8,367), he's got a passer rating of 100.9 and he's done all of this for two different teams.
Justin Jefferson finished with 1,500 yards, 10 touchdowns and averaged 90 yards per game with Darnold. Last year, we all watched as Jaxson Smith-Njigba had his best year yet and it came with Darnold under center.
Sam Darnold is that guy.
Revenge on the Mind
The New England Patriots entered 2025 with a new head coach, a second year QB under center and ended up in the Super Bowl. Whether it was their schedule or not, that's just not something that happens with a 23-year old leading your offense.
Drake Maye finished with the 4th most passing yards in the NFL, he threw 31 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions. He took care of the ball and outside the Super Bowl, rarely shot himself in the foot.
Maye completed 72% of his passes last year, finishing #1 in the NFL and these aren't just easy throws. He finished 1st in completion percentage over expectation, 2nd in adjusted completion percentage under pressure and 3rd in passer rating under pressure.
Maye was the engine that drove this Patriots offense and this offense just reloaded in a big way.
A.J. Brown was traded from Philadelphia to New England on June 1st and Brown hasn't looked this happy since he first got to Philly. He's looked great during training camp and early reports have pointed at quite the connection between Brown and his new QB.
Defensively the Patriots were tough last year. They gave up the 4th fewest points during the regular season, 6th fewest rushing yards and 9th fewest passing yards.
Problem is, it looks like their top defensive player could be holding out to start the year.
Christian Gonzalez is one of (if not) the best CBs in all of football. He's extension eligible and reports have indicated both he and the team remain far from an agreement.
In three games without Gonzo on the field, the Pats gave up 22.7 points per game. In 14 games with Gonzo on the field, they allowed just 18.0 points per game.
Wednesday's Best Bets
Cooper Kupp o2.5 Receptions (-130) | Lucky Rebel
The Patriots last year could do nothing against opposing slot receivers. Marcus Jones struggled as the team's nickel, giving up 5 touchdowns and a passer rating of 112.3 when targeted.
Marcus Jones is still this team's nickel and they could be without their top CB in Gonzo.
Kupp cleared this line in 8 of the team's 10 home games last year, he saw 12 targets in the Super Bowl and he torched man coverage all of last season.
The Patriots don't run a ton of man, but they're above league average. Kupp had a 22% route win rate against man coverage last year and he averaged 1.8 yards per route run against man.
Kupp is still this team's WR2 and until that changed, 3 receptions is simply too low of a number.
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