NFL Preseason Expert Picks for 8/14: Preseason Football is Football
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Fri Aug 14, 2026, 2:58 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+7.0
-125
35
-105u
+250
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-6.5
-115
34
-105o
-280
Football is back. Yes, it's the preseason; but it definitely still counts. As long there is NFL football on my television, it counts.
We've got three preseason games on the docket, six teams ready to take the field and three stadiums packed full of fans. Let's jump right into it and start talking football.
Reminder, this is the preseason and our units should reflect that. We're not donating to the books before the season begins and while we're going to be cautions; there's no reason we can't have a little fun while we do it.
For more information on betting the NFL, check our full NFL Betting Guide.
NFL Preseason Best Bets
New York Jets TT u20.5 (-120) | Lucky Rebel
The New York Jets are 5.5-point favorites in their first preseason game of the year and this might be the only time all year we see the Jets favored by nearly a touchdown.
New York recorded the 4th fewest total yards last year, the offense averaged just 17.6 points per game (28th) and the team is now on their fourth different QB in just as many seasons.
Geno Smith signed a 1-year deal to return to New York, hoping for redemption after the way his time ended in the Big Apple. Smith was drafted by the Jets in 2013, he started on Day 1 of his rookie year and that was clearly a mistake.
Smith would go on to start 30 games for the Jets in his first two years, winning just 11. Geno would average just 186 pass yards per game in those first two years, throwing 25 touchdowns, 34 interceptions and completing just 57% of his passes.
Geno would go 8 years between starting jobs in the NFL but he went 28-24 with Seattle, averaged just under 250 pass yards per game and finished with 75 touchdown passes to 35 interceptions.
Head Coach Aaron Glenn has said starters will play, just not how much. With a new OC on the sidelines, their fourth QB in as many years and Geno's struggles when wearing green; we're fading this offense.
Broncos vs. Falcons u40.5 (-110) | Lucky Rebel
I don't always love betting unders in the NFL, but the preseason just feels like the perfect time to do it. The Denver Broncos roll into their first preseason game without their young QB, Bo Nix. Nix has been at camp, but according to Head Coach Sean Payton, he'll start the second game of the preseason.
Outside of Nix, the Broncos will have their starters out there; but just for 15 plays. That pretty typical for any preseason game and even more so for a Sean Payton team.
Denver brings back nearly everyone from that scary defense they had a year ago and tonight they finally get to go back on the field. The Broncos gave up just 18.3 points per game last year and while the starters won't play more than two drives; this defense's best quality last year was its depth.
The Broncos lead the NFL in sacks last year with 68 and had 10 total players with 3+ sacks; 9 of whom are still on the team.
The Atlanta Falcons are team with a ton of talent, stuck in limbo. They paid Kirk Cousins way too much money, drafted a QB in the 1st round 5 weeks later and now they've got a QB competition going on between Michael Penix Jr. and Tua Tagovailoa.
This just isn't where you want to be if your the Falcons and it's why I think this offense is going to struggle tonight. Head Coach Kevin Stefanski has announced that Tua will get the start in this first preseason game, but I wouldn't expect starters to play more than 15-18 plays.
Dolphins vs. Commanders u36.5 (-110) | Lucky Rebel
I didn't mean to bet unders in every single game today, it just kind of happened. The Washington Commanders come into this year just in a weird place. The team's got a new OC, their run game feels questionable and I don't see how this defense got any better.
The team added Stefon Diggs late in training camp and while that does move the needle a little; at this age I just don't love the move.
On the other side we've got a Miami Dolphins team that looks completely different from just a year ago. Malik Willis is the Dolphins' new starting QB, Jeff Hafley was hired to be the new Head Coach and Jaylen Waddle's now playing for the Broncos.
The only thing that remains consistent in Miami is De'Von Achance and his ability to play football. Achane's going to touch the ball a ton this year. If that's the case, I'm guessing he won't get a ton of burn here in the preseason.
Both teams will have their starters out there, but on a very limited snap count. Just give me four ugly quarters of football, please.
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