Buccaneers vs Vikings Week 1 Prediction & Picks: Minny Defends Home Turf
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Update: Sat Sep 09, 2023, 7:40 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season is officially here, bringing an end to those grueling football-less months. Sunday's NFL action is loaded, featuring an early afternoon matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Minnesota Vikings.
As with every Week 1 matchup, this weekend's Buccaneers vs Vikings showdown is ripe with betting opportunities. Betting News is here to make everything easier for you by not only gathering the latest game odds but also providing you with some betting picks.
Buccaneers vs Vikings Week 1 Preview
TB vs. MIN Game Information
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0, 0-0 Away) vs. Minnesota Vikings (0-0, 0-0 Home)
- Venue & Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 10, 2023
- Game Time: 1 p.m. Eastern Time
- Where to Watch Buccaneers vs Vikings: CBS
Buccaneers vs Vikings Odds
NFL game odds courtesy of Bovada as of Saturday, Sept. 9 at 7:38 p.m. ET. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.
Spread
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 (-110)
- Minnesota Vikings -5 (-110)
Over/Under
- Over 45.5 Points (-110)
- Under 45.5 Points (-110)
Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +190
- Minnesota Vikings -230
Buccaneers vs Vikings Betting Trends
- Tampa Bay is 2-4 straight up in its last six games.
- Minnesota is 14-6 straight up in its last 20 home games against Tampa Bay.
- Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games.
- Minnesota is 5-2 ATS in its last seven Week 1 games.
- The total has hit the under in six of Tampa Bay's last seven games against the NFC North.
- The total has hit the over in each of Minnesota's last five home games.
Buccaneers vs Vikings Week 1 Game Preview
This game is a matchup between two teams who couldn't make it far in the 2022 playoffs.
Despite going 8-9, the Buccaneers still won the NFC South last season. Unfortunately, they couldn't make it out of the Wild Card Round, falling 31-14 to the Dallas Cowboys in front of a disappointed Raymond James Stadium crowd.
At the same time, the Vikings also got bounced in the postseason's first round after going 13-4 to win the NFC North, falling 31-24 to the New York Giants at home.
Needless to say, both the Buccaneers and Vikings could use the win on Sunday.
It's going to be hard for the Buccaneers to win games this year as they go from the legendary Tom Brady as their quarterback to Baker Mayfield.
The 28-year-old veteran split the 2022 season between the Panthers and Rams, playing to a 2-8 record while averaging 180.3 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Even though the Vikings' defense isn't elite, I don't see Mayfield producing much — especially with an average offensive line.
I do like the Vikings' offense more. Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver in the NFL today and should have another MVP-caliber season. 2023 first-round pick Jordan Addison is also a suitable replacement for Adam Thielen, who left this offseason.
And yes, while the Vikings no longer have Dalvin Cook in the backfield, I have faith in Alexander Mattison. He's averaging 6.8 yards per carry in his career and even though that isn't sustainable, he's proven in the past that he can handle the RB1 load.
It also isn't easy to trust the Buccaneers on the road after last season.
Tampa Bay struggled away from home, losing five of its last six road games. The Bucs were held to 19 or fewer points in each one of those outings, being outscored by an average margin of 10.7 points along the way.
Meanwhile, including the playoffs, the Vikings went 8-2 at home in 2022. A lot of their success stemmed from a lethal offense that averaged 26.7 PPG at home — good for eighth-best in the NFL.
Speaking of U.S. Bank Stadium, playing there has been hell for the Buccaneers. After all, Tampa Bay has dropped 14 of its last 20 trips to Minneapolis, most recently losing 34-17 back in September 2017.
Buccaneers vs Vikings Prediction and Best Bets
Buccaneers vs Vikings Prediction: Vikings 26, Buccaneers 16
Buccaneers vs Vikings Picks: Vikings -5 (Best Value: -110 on Bovada ) & Alexander Mattison Any Time Touchdown (+100 on Bovada)
The Vikings are the clear-cut better team and won't lose to the Buccaneers, who are projected to be among the worst in the NFL. Kirk Cousins won't have an issue out-dueling Baker Mayfield as Minnesota begins with a 1-0 start to the season.
With that in mind, take the Vikings to cover the 5-point spread. On top of being fantastic at home, Minnesota is also 5-2 ATS in its last seven Week 1 tilts while Tampa Bay has failed to cover the spread in six consecutive road games.
As for a Buccaneers vs Vikings player prop, let's go with an Alexander Mattison any time touchdown (+100). In six career starts, Mattison has turned 140 opportunities (117 carries, 23 receptions) into 693 total yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns.
As long as the Vikings treat him as they would Cook, Mattison is a great pick to finish the day with at least one TD.
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Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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