Chiefs vs Lions: NFL Season Opener, Prediction & Picks: Showtime Shows Out
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Thu Sep 07, 2023, 11:43 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Football is back.
The NFL Regular Season kicks off Thursday Night in Kansas City as the defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs host Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions.
Dan Campbell leads his squad to take on the Goliath that is Kansas City in one of the loudest stadiums in the world, quite the tall task.
Let's breakdown this game and talk about whether the Lions even have a shot at upsetting the Chiefs.
Lions vs Chiefs Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
- Date: Thursday, September 7th, 2023
- Kick Off: 8:20pm Eastern
- Broadcast: NBC
Betting Odds
Spread
- Lions +6.5 (-115)
- Chiefs -6.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Lions +235
- Chiefs -285
Total
- Over 54.5 (-110)
- Under 54.5 (-110)
Does Detroit Stand a Chance?
There is a lot of hype surrounding this Lions team and for good reason, they could sneak into the playoffs this year.
Jared Goff is a sound QB, and Head Coach Dan Campbell has surrounded him with playmakers like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs to boost this offense.
Clearly they know if they want to beat Kansas City, they will probably have to score 30.
Do I think Detroit can win this season opener on the road at Arrowhead against Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and the Chiefs? To be honest, no, not at all.
However, I definitely think they can cover the spread.
I would be more comfortable taking the Chiefs at -6, if that number ever shows up, since there is push potential and a missed extra point wouldn't bite us.
Even without Chris Jones, the Chiefs Defense is solid enough to contain the Lions and let Mahomes and the offense go out and win this game.
I picture a shootout, but 55 points is quite a few, so I'll just stick to props in this one, aside from this cheeky 1Q total.
The Pick: KC/DET 1Q Over 10 (-130)
I think these teams get out a move the ball quickly and could each score a TD in the first 15 minutes.
Even with a TD and a FG we come out with a push which is the probable outcome, but I think the Chiefs miss Chris Jones early and the Lions help us get over this total.
Prediction: Chiefs 31-23
Lions vs Chiefs Player Props
Travis Kelce over 6.5 Receptions (-120) Bovada
Who else is Mahomes throwing the ball to?
On the offensive side of the ball, the WR room is the biggest question mark in this offense, so I see Mahomes relying on Kelce plenty.
He's proven to bet able to get open in double coverage, and I picture double digit targets for this guy.
Kelce has glue on his gloves and makes the tough short grabs when the Chiefs need him on 3rd down and in the Redzone.
He cleared this line in 9/20 games last year, and 6/10 at home. He had 6 receptions in six other contests, and 2 of those at home.
Seven catches for Kelce in the season/home opener seems too low for me.
Patrick Mahomes over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+100) Bovada
This guy is absolutely ridiculous, especially during September.
Here are his stats during the opening month of the year in his career.
- 16 games
- 13-3 Record
- 49-4 TD-INT Ratio
- 318.81 Pass Yds/Game
- 2 Rushing TDs
The man is a freak.
He's cleared 3+ Passing TDs in 12/16 games during the month of September, and 9/20 games last year, including six contests with 2 Passing TDs.
For even money I'll bet on this considering the Chiefs pull out plenty of trickery and are willing to pass up against the goal line.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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