Bills vs Commanders, Prediction & Top Picks: Can Commanders Hang with Bills at Home?

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

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Bills vs Commanders, Prediction & Top Picks: Can Commanders Hang with Bills at Home? cover


The Buffalo Bills head down to D.C. to take on the Washington Commanders in Week 3 of the NFL Season.

The Bills are 1-1 heading into this game, while the Commanders are 2-0.

After losing to the Jets on Monday Night Football thanks to Josh Allen’s 3 Interceptions, the Bills cleaned it up and looked rock solid against the Raiders.

They won 38-10 and allowed just 240 yards of total offense, including just 55 rushing yards. Of course the Raiders were throwing the ball plenty as they were down most of the contest.

The Commanders came back and beat the Cardinals 20-16 after scoring 10 points in the 4th quarter to get the win at home. In similar fashion last week, Washington found themselves down 21-3 to the Denver Broncos.

Sam Howell and company rallied the troops and ended up winning the game 35-33.

Bills vs Commanders Game Information

Matchup Information

  • Venue & Location: FedEX Field (Landover, MD)
  • Date: Sunday, September 24th, 2023
  • Kick Off: 1:00pm Eastern
  • Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

Odds Courtesy of Bovada.


  • Bills -6.5 (-110)
  • Commanders +6.5 (-110)


  • Bills -260
  • Commanders +215


  • Over 43 (-105)
  • Under 43 (-115)

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Bills Commanders Prediction Picks

The Bills are a touchdown favorite for good reason. We saw how good they can be against the Raiders last week. On the flip side, we also saw how bad they can be when Josh Allen turns the ball over.

This Commanders defense forced Russell Wilson into an interception last weekend, and I could see something similar this week.

Personally, I’m sold on the Commanders. Yes, they have wins against Arizona and Denver, but they were two great comebacks on the shoulders of Sam Howell.

It’s clear play caller Eric Bieniemy has changed the situation on offense.

I like the Commanders to keep this close, and although I won’t bet the ML, it wouldn’t surprise me if they win this outright and catch Buffalo on a bad week.

Gimme the Commanders to keep it within a TD at home against the roller coaster Bills.

The Pick: Commanders +6.5 (-110) Bovada

Shall We Root for Points?

Nope. Not in this one. I’m taking the under.

The Commanders have played two bad defenses, and only scored 20 against the Cardinals. The Bills D will be a true test, even at home.

On the flip side the Bills only put up 16 against a good Jets defense. I like this one to be lower scoring than expected, and again, the Commanders will keep it close.

I’ll shop for the best line, but gimme the under in this one at noon.

The Pick: BUF/WAS Under 43 (-110) BetOnline

NFL Player Prop Bets

Josh Allen Interception (+105) Bovada

Bills Commanders Prediction Picks

We saw Josh Allen throw three picks against the Jets on the road. We know he can be impulsive and reckless with the football.

For plus money, I’ll bet he makes a mistake this weekend.

Prior to the Raiders game last Sunday, Allen had thrown a pick in 5 straight games, totaling 9 interception and 3 multi-pick games.

Allen has thrown 5 picks in his last 2 away games, and has thrown one in 6 of his L9 on the road. He has a total of 11 interceptions in his L9 road games.

Like I said, for plus money, let’s hope he lets one slip on the way to a Commanders’ cover.

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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