Texas Longhorns Win Total Future: Do We Trust Arch and Sark in the Big 26?
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Tue Jul 28, 2026, 5:40 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Expectations in Austin are as high as ever. After going to the College Football Playoff Semifinals in both 2023 and 2024, the Texas Longhorns missed out on the field of 12 completely in Arch Manning's first full season as their starting quarterback. They ended up going 9-3 with top 10 wins over Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M, but an SEC loss to Florida in the Swamp was the dealbreaker in leaving them out. This year, their win total is set at 9.5 games, with plus money to the over. Find out how I'm betting this market below.
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Texas Longhorns Football Team Preview & Schedule
Steve Sarkisian and the Texas Longhorns missed out on the CFP last season. Can they find a spot this year?
Longhorns Offense
I will give Arch Manning his flowers. He picked it up during the back half of the season last year, and I can't imagine the pressure this kid is under. Texas has come up short recently in the playoffs, the Longhorn fans are getting reckless after years of mediocrity following their National Championship game loss in January of 2010, and of course, the kid's last name is Manning. However, the Longhorns return four offensive linemen and acquired nice skill players in the portal such as RB Hollywood Smothers (NC State), and WR Cam Coleman (Auburn).
But unfortunately, I just don't know if I trust either Arch, or Sarkisian in the big games.
Longhorns Defense
Overall, the defensive unit is solid. But the front seven will be much stronger than the secondary. I worry teams will be able to throw all they want, scoring in bunches if they please, leaving it up to Manning's offense to make it up on the scoreboard. This would put even more pressure on the kid. Plus, they play some of the most potent offenses in the entire country.
Texas Longhorns 2026 Schedule
*Neutral Site
- 9/5: vs. Texas State
- 9/12: vs. Ohio State
- 9/19: vs. UTSA
- 9/26: @ Tennessee
- 10/10: vs. Oklahoma* (Both Teams off Bye)
- 10/17: vs. Florida
- 10/24: vs. Ole Miss
- 10/31: vs. Mississippi State
- 11/7: @ Missouri
- 11/14: @ LSU
- 11/21: vs. Arkansas
- 11/28: @ Texas A&M (Friday Night)
Phil Steele thinks this is the hardest schedule in all of college football this year, not just the SEC. Sure, we don't see Georgia or Alabama, but this Longhorns team will need to be near perfect to get to the College Football Playoff.
Texas Longhorns Win Total Picks and Predictions
Can Arch Manning win the Heisman and lead Texas to the top of the SEC?
Texas Longhorns Record Prediction: (8-4, 5-3)
Best Bet: Texas Longhorns Under 9.5 Wins (-135) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I'm a big Ella Langley fan. But this year, I'm NOT choosin' Texas. You can tell by the way I'm two-steppin' to the counter to place this wager.
Just like with our USC Win Total bet, let's not focus on the wins, but instead, look for the losses. We only need three. Again, there's no Georgia or Alabama. But the Longhorns still have to play at Tennessee, Oklahoma in Dallas (whom they upset last year), Florida, Ole Miss, and at LSU and Texas A&M towards the end of the season.
Could the Longhorns win all of those games? Sure… if they are perfect. Which I don't expect them to be. Knoxville is tough enough, Oklahoma has revenge on their mind, Florida should be much better than last year (beat Texas in the Swamp), and Ole Miss can certainly go into Austin and beat the Longhorns. I see them at best splitting those two late road games against the Tigers and Aggies, most likely losing in Baton Rouge.
And of course, the Buckeyes come to town. Ohio State is a 1.5 point underdog right now in that game, but I think Matt Patricia's defense is going to put Arch in hell, just like last year where he had just 170 passing yards and an interception.
If I'm predicting the Longhorns' four losses, it's to the Buckeyes, Sooners, Rebels and Tigers. But all we need is three, and there's certainly more questionable games on their schedule.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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