Top 5 showdown in Austin: Ohio State at Texas ( Expert Picks 9/12)
Written by: PJ Glasser
Published: Sat Sep 12, 2026, 10:14 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaaf
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+2.5
-110
51
-110o
+117
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-2.0
-110
51
-105u
-125
I have said that I think this is the biggest game in college football this season. The winner of this matchup might just win the national title while the loser of this game might end up missing the college football playoff. Ohio State still has to play Indiana, Oregon, USC, and Michigan this season while Texas faces Tennessee, Oklahoma, LSU, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M. Both teams have gauntlets the rest of the way and the loser of this game might only be able to drop one more the rest of the season.
Check out the best odds on the market and tons of picks for the NCAA Football Season.
NCAA Football Expert Insights: Ohio State vs Texas
I think for me the biggest deciding factor in this matchup will be the Texas offense vs the Ohio State defense. Last year Texas only managed to score 7 points against this Ohio State defense. Arch Manning was 17/30 for 170 yards and 1 interception. With so much hype around Arch coming into last year he undelivered in that opening game and you just know he's been waiting for this matchup again.
On paper he might be going up against a defense not as good as the one he faced last year. It's Ohio State so they are always loaded with NFL guys, but they lost some good ones from last year including Arvel Reese, Sunny Styles, and Caleb Downs. Matt Patricia had a great first year as the Ohio State defensive coordinator, but this will be his first true test this season without all those studs he had last year.
Arch was awesome towards the end of last season and looked healthy. The offensive line is better than it was last year and he has two elite wide receivers and a terrific running back around him. No more excuses for Manning or this Texas offense. This is the game where they need to deliver.
Ohio State Buckeyes vs Texas Longhorns: NCAA Football Expert Picks
Jeremiah Smith and the Buckeyes have their sights set on another National Title
Matchup Information – Ohio State vs Texas – September 12
- Venue & Location: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium ( Austin, Texas)
- Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
- Kick Off: 7:30pm ET
- Broadcast: ABC
Ohio State vs Texas Betting Odds
Odds listed are from BetOnline as of Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 10:15 a.m. eastern.
Spread
- Ohio State +1 (-105)
- Texas -1 (-115)
Moneyline
- Ohio State +110
- Texas -130
Total
- Over 49.5 (-110)
- Under 49.5 (-110)
Ohio State vs Texas Prediction: Ohio State Wins, Ohio State Covers, Over 49.5
Best Bet: Ohio State +109 (-105) BetOnline
All summer I thought I was going to be on Texas in this game. Revenge from last year and I feel like Texas is better than they were last season and Ohio State is a little worse. As we have gotten closer to kickoff though I just can't pull the trigger on Texas. This is the first time Ohio State is an underdog since the 2023 Michigan game where they lost and failed to cover. It's not often you get the Buckeyes with a plus sign next to their name. It feels like it's a trap taking Ohio State, but I just can't trust Texas.
To me that is the key word is this matchup – trust. Do you trust Ryan Day more or Sark? Do you trust Julian Sayin more or Arch Manning? Do you trust the Ohio State defense more or Texas? We do this every year with Texas. All this talent, all this potential, and usually in the biggest games they fall short. On paper it looks really good and they could potentially have five first round picks in the NFL Draft next year. They have burned us all so many times that I just can't do it. They are favored to win the game and they should win the game. However, I'm going to trust Ryan Day and Ohio State to find a way because more often than not in these big matchups the Buckeyes come through and the Longhorns do not.
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PJ has hosted national radio shows for the past 4 years on BETMGM Network and Westwood One Sports breaking down college football, college basketball, the NFL, MLB, and Golf. His sharp analysis and insight have earned him a growing following that looks forward to all his picks. Give him a follow on X: @PJGlasser9
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